Aug 25 Ag Market View

by Steve Freed,

Soybeans, soyoil and corn ended lower. Soymeal and wheat were unchanged. US Dollar was lower. Crude, US stocks and most commodities were higher.

Soybeans ended lower. Talk that Pro Farmer tour could est US 2017 soybean yield below USDA August estimate offered support. Weaker US barge basis offered resistance. US 2 week Midwest weather forecast suggest normal to below rains and normal to below temps. Noon maps suggested path of US hurricane may be a little west and could reduce Delta rains. The long range maps also hint of cooler US Midwest temps. IGC increased their estimate of the 2017/18 World soybean crop 2 mmt to 347. USDA est is 347. Pro Farmer est US 2017 crop soybean yield near 48.5 vs USDA 49.4. This would be a crop of 4,331 mil bu vs USDA 4,381. Could suggest a US 2017/18 soybean carryout near 425 vs USDA 475. Pro Farmer IL yield is 55.5 vs USDA 58.0. Pro Farmer IA yield is 53.5 vs USDA 56.0.

Corn closed lower. Talk that Pro Farmer may est US corn yield below USDA August est offered early support. Sharp break in US corn barge basis may have weighed on prices. Appears funds are adding to net short position in front of the US harvest. Talk that Brazil farmers are reluctant sellers of corn has pushed their export prices higher. This could help US export demand. US Midwest 2 week forecast suggest normal to below rains and normal to below temps. This could aid maturation but lack of rains could limit the upside in final corn yields. IGC lowered their est of 2017/18 corn crop 3 mmt to 1,017 mmt due to lower EU and China crops. USDA est is 1,033. Pro Farmer est US 2017 corn yield near 167.1 vs USDA 169.5. This suggest a crop of 13,953 mil bu vs USDA 14,152. This could suggest a carryout near 2,073 mil bu vs USDA 2,273. Pro Farmer est IL corn yield near 181 vs USDA 188. They est IA corn yield near 183 vs USDA 188. Scouts report that the crop is variable from state to state.

Wheat futures closed mixed to unchanged. Funds are increasing net short positions in Chicago, should be out of long positions in MGE abut could still be net long KC. WZ is near 4.35. KWZ is near 4.32. MWZ is near 6.69. Futures steep drop since early July highs and low stochastics suggest futures may be oversold. Still large World supplies offers resistance to prices. IGC raised their of World 2017/18 wheat production 10 mmt to 742. This due to higher Black Sea crops. USDA estimate is near 743. USDA estimate of the US 2017/18 wheat supply near 3,074 mil bu vs 3.403 last year and end stocks near 933 vs 1,184 ly appears adequate to satisfy demand. Talk that US farmers may increase 2018 acres offers resistance.

2017-08-25T20:51:53+00:00 August 25th, 2017|