By Steve Freed
Soybeans, soymeal, corn and wheat ended lower. Soyoil was unchanged. US Dollar was lower. Crude was lower. Gold and copper were higher.
Soybeans ended lower. Talk that Pro Farmer US 2017 soybean yield was not bullish enough to support prices may have triggered increase fund selling. US 2 week Midwest weather forecast suggest normal to below rains and normal to below temps. The long range maps also hint of cooler US Midwest temps. Weekly US soybean exports were near 26 mil bu vs 34 last year. Season to date exports are near 2,096 mil bu vs 1,854 ly. USDA goal is 2,150 vs 1,942 ly. USDA estimates total 2017/18 soybean supply near 4,776 mil bu vs 4,528 this past year. Total demand is estimated near 4,301 mil bu vs 4,159 this past year. Their estimate of US 2017/18 soybean carryout is near 475 versus 370 this year.
Corn futures closed lower. Some link the selling to talk that final US 2017 corn yield could be near the USDA August estimate, that US farmers may have increased sales of 2016 corn Versus paying additional storage and increase concern that US could increase tension on trade war issues. Traditional funds increased their net short more than expected. This could be supportive if there was some positive news or a post harvest bounce. Normal seasonal suggest without a frost scare and a bullish USDA September or October crop report suggest prices could trend lower into harvest. Weekly US corn exports were near 31 mil bu vs 56 last year. Season to date exports are near 2,208 mil bu vs 1,794 ly. USDA goal is 2,225 vs 1,901 ly. USDA estimates total 2017/18 corn supply near 16,573 mil bu vs 16,940 this past year. Total demand is estimated near 14,300 mil bu vs 14,570 this past year. Their estimate of US 2017/18 corn carryout is near 2,273 versus 2,370 this year.
Wheat futures closed lower. Funds are increasing net short positions in Chicago. WZ is near 4.28. KWZ is near 4.25. MWZ is near 6.64. Futures steep drop since early July highs and low stochastics suggest futures may be oversold. Still large World supplies offers resistance to prices. Weekly US wheat exports were near 25 mil bu vs 21 last year. Season to date exports are near 273 mil bu vs 243 ly. USDA goal is 975 vs 1,055 ly. Talk that US farmers may increase 2018 acres offers resistance. USDA estimates total 2017/18 wheat supply near 3,074 mil bu vs 3,403 last year. Total demand is estimated near 2,141 mil bu vs 2,219 last year. Their estimate of US 2017/18 wheat carryout is near 933 versus 1,184 last year.
The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.