by Steve Freed,
Soybeans, soymeal and soyoil closed lower. Corn closed unchanged. Wheat closed higher. US Dollar was lower.
Soybean closed lower. This week, soybean futures firmed after a bearish reaction to the USDA September US soybean crop estimate and 2017/18 carryout estimate. Today, NOPA August soybean crush was record high. This weekend should be warm and dry across the US Midwest. This could help maturation. Some feel the drier than normal weather could limit the upside in the US crop and could even suggest a lower crop. USDA raised the US yield to near 49.9. This suggest a crop near 4,431 mil bu. Demand is est near a record 4.326. Still the 2017/18 soybean carryout is est to be near 475. If realized, would be negative to prices. USDA did drop US 2016/17 soyoil carryout to near 1,827 mil lbs and lowered US 2017/18 soyoil carryout to near 1,757. This due to higher biodiesel demand.
This week the US Climate Prediction Center suggested a higher chance of La Nina. Thus could suggest a colder US winter with above precip in the east. This could suggest below normal rains in south Brazil and north Argentina.
Corn futures closed unchanged. Some feel corn futures may be range bound until more is known about US 2017 crop size and South America weather. This week, corn futures tried to bounce off a negative reaction to the USDA September crop report. Some link this to short covering. CZ still struggling to push above the simple 20 day moving average as US harvest begins. Early harvest report suggest corn yields vary even within fields. Some feel that the dry August could suggest the final US corn yield could be lower than USDA 169.9. USDA lowered their est of 2017 average cattle prices $2 from last month est of $119.00. They est 2018 prices near $115.50. USDA also lowered 2017 ave hog price $1 to $50.50 and est 2018 near $ 48.00.
Wheat futures closed mixed. WZ closed up 6 cents and near 4.49. Support is near 4.37. Resistance is near 4.59. Funds may be covering shorts. KWZ closed up 4 cents and near 4.46. Support is also near 4.36. Resistance is near 4.60. US south plains could use rains for planting the 2018 crop. Some are forecasted for next week. MWZ was down 11 cents and near 6.21. MWZ made new lows for the move with next support near 6.10. One analyst est US 2017 Wheat acres near 45.1 vs USDA 45.7. They est 2018 US Wheat acres near 45.8. They est US final 2017 wheat crop near 1,660 mil bu vs USDA 1,739. USDA final est is on September 29. This week US wheat export sales were only 11 mil bu. Total commit is near 469 mil bu vs 474 ly.
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