February 1 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

Soybeans, soymeal, soyoil and wheat closed lower. Corn closed unchanged. US Dollar was lower. Crude was higher. Gold was higher.

Soybeans ended lower. Talk of rain next week in Argentina and a drier trend in Brazil next week plus lower than expected weekly US soybean export sales offset a higher tome in global soymeal values. Weekly US soybean export sales were near 13 mil bu. This was lower than expected. Total commit is near 1,601 mil bu vs 1,851 last year. Some feel final export could slow given talk of higher Brazil supply and March forward Brazil prices are lower than US. SH traded back below key moving ave. Key could be final US 2017/18 soybean balance sheet. Lower exports could raise the carryout which could weigh on prices.

US 30 day temperature forecast

Corn ended unchanged. Higher than expected US weekly corn export sales offered support. Continued concern about large US corn supply offers strong overhead resistance. Higher US and global animal numbers and trade may be helping the demand for corn. This could help lower slightly World corn end stocks. Uncertainty over China corn situation could be key to corn demand. China anti-pollution policy that includes blending 10 pct ethanol into the domestic gas blend could add 40 mt of annual corn demand. Current demand is near 240 mmt. Blend would add 40 mmt. Current crop is near 215 mmt. Talk stocks were as high at 200 mmt. Could suggest China has some room to increase demand before the stocks decline. Weekly US corn export sales were near 73 mil bu. This was higher than expected. Total commit is near 1,270 mil bu vs 1,583 last year. Some feel final exports could be a little higher due to lower South America supply.

US 30 day rainfall forecast

Wheat futures closed unchanged. MGE wheat closed higher lower US Dollar and dry US south plains continues to offer support. Some long liquidation near key resistance is offering resistance. Bears feel large global supplies and another record Russian crop could limit the upside in prices. Bulls feel large fund short and dry US south plains weather has helped forge a bottom in wheat prices. Weekly US wheat export sales were near 11 mil bu. This was lower than expected. Total commit is near 750 mil bu vs 841 last year. Some feel final exports could be a little higher due to uncertainty of US 2018 weather. Large global supplies, lower World  trade and talk of higher 2018 Russian supplies offers resistance to prices. Need a US weather problem to move prices sharply higher.

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2018-02-01T20:32:55+00:00 February 1st, 2018|