May 3 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

Soybean and soyoil closed higher. Corn and wheat closed higher. US stocks rallied off session lows. US stocks and soybean awaiting news on US/China trade talks. Hearing US/China trade group left the meeting with no comment. Crude was higher. Metals were higher.

Soybeans closed higher. Trade wars are hard to trade. Talk that China may not buy US soybean for the remainder of this market year and net cancellations today of open China soybean sales weighed on prices early. US stock market also traded lower on fears there would be no resolutions to US/China trade issue. Weekly US soybean export sales were near 416 mt (15 mil bu). Total commit is near 54.8 mmt (2,012 mil bu) vs 56.6 (2,082) last year. USDA goal is 56.2 mmt (2,065 mil bu) vs 59.2 (2,174) last year. Informa est World 2018 soybean crop near 362 mmt vs 335 this year. US is 120 vs 119, Brazil 120 vs 117 and Argentina 56 vs 37. Trade is still looking for US 2018/19 soybean carryout to be lower than this year.


Corn futures closed higher. Some link the buying to talk of  lower World 2018 corn supply. US spring weather has turned mostly favorable for corn planting. Talk of normal rains and normal temps over the next 2 weeks should help early growth. There are reports that current prices have triggered a large increase in US new crop farmer core sales. Weekly US corn export sales were near 1.02 mmt (40 mil bu). Total commit is near 51.0 mmt (2,007 mil bu) vs 51.8 (2,040) last year. USDA goal is 56.5 mmt (2,225 mil bu) vs 58.2 (2,293) last year. Some hope lower South America corn crops could help US final export demand. Informa est World 2018 corn crop near 1,046 mmt vs 1,032 this year. US 360 mmt vs 317 ly, Brazil 95 vs 89. Argentina 41 vs 31. China 220 vs 216. Ukraine 28 vs 24. Most are looking for a lower US/World 2108/19 corn carryout than this year. This due to higher demand and lower US and South America supplies. Higher trade over the March 13 high is supportive. Market is becoming over bought.

Wheat closed higher. Talk of lower 2018 supplies in US, Russia and Australia may be triggering more buying. WN traded over the March 2 high. Market though is becoming over bought. KWN also traded over the March 2 high. Some link that to estimate of a lower Kansas/US HRW crop that last year. 2 week forecast of mostly dry weather across the SW ½ of US HRW area, south Russia, SE Ukraine, NE China and New South Wales, Australia may have also helped wheat. Weekly US wheat export sales were near 235 mt (8 mil bu). Total commit is near 23.5 mmt (864 mil bu) vs 28.0 (1,027) last year. USDA goal is 25.2 mmt (925 mil bu) vs 28.7 (1,055) last year. Informa est World 2018 wheat crop near 751 mmt vs 760 this past year. US is 50 vs 47 ly, EU 150 vs 152, Russia 77 vs 85, Canada 33 vs 30 and Australia 25 vs 21. KS crop tour est the 2018 crop near 243 mil bu vs 334 ly. Some estimate the US 2018 HRW crop near 620 mil bu vs 750 ly

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2018-05-03T19:59:46+00:00 May 3rd, 2018|