By Steve Freed
Soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, corn and wheat closed lower. US Dollar was higher. For the week so far the market is down 38 cents. December soybean meal put in a new low for the move at $316.5 versus overnight high near $324.50. Lack of any progress from the US/China trade talks, strong yield data from the crop tour, and continued emerging market currency weakness continues to pressure the soy complex today. A 2.7% drop in China meal values this morning is seen as a bearish development as well. A fourth case of African swine fever has been reported with concerns the hog breeding sector will suffer. Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 5 mil bu for the current marketing year and 42 mil bu for the next marketing year, As of August 16, cumulative soybean sales stand at 22% of the USDA forecast for 2018/2019 (next) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 30.6%. Sales of 29 mil bu are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. International Grain Council raised World 2081/19 soybean crop 7 mmt to 366 due to an upgrade in the US crop.
December corn extended lower trading down to 361 early in the session. The market is down roughly 16 cents on the week so far. Weakness continues to come from better yield estimates for the Pro Farmer Tour from both western Iowa and Illinois yesterday. IL corn yield was est near 192.6 vs 180.7 last year and USDA 207.0. IA corn yield was est near 179.8-186.8 vs 178.7-185.6 last year and USDA 202.0. Net weekly export sales for corn, came in at 7 mil bu for the current marketing year and 41 for the next marketing year. As of August 16, cumulative corn sales stand at 16.6% of the USDA forecast for 2018/2019 (next) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 17.1%. Sales of 35 mil bu are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Overnight, China corn futures rallied after the government said it would promote the use of ethanol in vehicles. Scattered rains are forecast across the Midwest esp north over the next 3-4 days. 2 week forecast suggest a warmer and drier trend. This could quicken the start of US 2018 harvest.
Wheat futures followed corn and soymeal lower. Chicago December wheat is trading at 5.40 after trading up to 5.54 ½ in the overnight session. Kansas City December has seen similar action trading at 5.50. Matif December futures are down .50 at 206.00 Euro. Early weakness was due to a poor weekly export sales number coming in at 9 mil bu for the current marketing year. As of August 16, cumulative wheat sales stand at 30.7% of the USDA forecast for 2018/2019 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 45.8%. Sales of 17 mil bu are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. The International Grains Council estimated 2018-19 global wheat output at 716 mmt down 5 mmt from their previous estimate. They lowered the EU production to 135.8 million tonnes down 2.9% from last year.
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