August 24 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed


Soybeans, soyoil and corn ended higher, Wheat again was lower. US Dollar was lower. Crude and most commodities were higher.

Soybeans had a down week. Some feel lack of a US and China trade resolution could push prices lower. This weeks Pro Farmer tour did not find any problems with the US crop and could support USDA record crop estimate. Pro Farmer estimated the US soybean yield near 53.0 vs USDA 51.6. Fact Brazil appeal court overruled the ban on Roundup ready herbicide could help Brazil yield outlook. Brazil currency could also increase their 2019 acres. This week, International Grain Council increased their estimate of 2018/19 World soybean crop 10 mmt. This due to a higher estimate of US. They also revised up Brazil and Argentina crops 4 mmt. They also reduced China imports 6 mmt from their previous estimate. All of this suggest long term trend in soybean prices should be lower.

Soybean Futures Chart


Corn futures also had a down week, fund selling in front of the US harvest may have weighed on prices. This weeks Pro Farmer Tour had mixed results. NE and OH corn yields were near USDA August est supporting USDA record yield forecast. MN, IA and IL yield though were below USDA. Pro Farmer estimated the US corn yield near 177.3 vs USDA 178.4 Historically, Pro Farmer yield has been below USDA final but prices could find support if the final yield is below USDA August. Also this week the International Grain Council increased World 2018/19 corn crop 13 mmt. Most of the increase was due to a higher US crop. They also increase 2019 Brazil and Argentina crops 3 mmt. IGC continues to estimate China 2018/19 corn end stocks near 163 mmt vs USDA estimate of 58. This could be one reason why corn prices are struggling to rally despite USDA estimate of a drop in World end stocks from 193 mmt this year to 155 next.

Corn Futures Chart


Wheat futures also traded lower this week. Talk that Russia will increase wheat exports may have triggered fund long liquidation. This week. International Grain Council lowered their estimate of World 2018/19 wheat crop 16 mmt. They dropped Australia 3 mmt, EU 10 mmt and Russia 5 mmt from their previous estimate. They did increase US 3 mmt. This lowered World end stocks 7 mmt. Of the total World wheat end stocks they show China near 116 mmt They lowered Russia exports to near 31 mmt vs 41 last year. USDA est Russia exports near 35 mmt vs 42 last year. They est US exports near 29 mmt vs 24 last year. USDA est US wheat exports near 28 mmt vs 24 last year. Recent rains have improved the outlook for US 2019 winter wheat acres. Drop in soybean and corn prices could increase US 2019 winter wheat acres.

Wheat Futures Chart

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2018-08-24T19:45:18+00:00 August 24th, 2018|