By Steve Freed
Soybeans ended lower led by soymeal, Wheat ended lower. Corn ended lower but off session slows. US Dollar was lower. US stocks were higher. Cattle and hogs rallied on US and Mexico trade news soybeans ended lower but off session lows. Lower China soybean and soymeal prices offered overnight resistance. China futures were down on concern that swine flu might spread and reduce feed demand. Talk that new US farm aid for US farmers could increase farmer selling at harvest may have also weighed on prices. US soybean export basis continues to weaken due to lack of new China demand. Weekly US soybean exports were near 33 mil bu vs 27 last year. This was higher than expected. Season to date exports are near 2,039 mil bu vs 2,099 last year. USDA goal is 2,110 vs 2,166 ly. USDA 2018/19 goal is 2,060. Trade expects USDA to rate the US soybean crop 65 pct good/ex and unchanged from last week.
Corn opened lower and traded lower following soymeal and wheat. Talk that Pro Farmer US corn yield was equal to USDA and that crop was maturing faster than normal offered resistance. Corn found support after US and Mexico announced trade deal does not include Canada and must still be approved by Congress. Weekly US corn exports were near 49 mil bu vs 33 last year. Pace continues to support talk of higher demand for US exports. Season to date exports are near 2,219 mil bu vs 2,209 last year. USDA goal is 2,400 vs 2,293 ly. USDA 2018/19 goal is 2,350. Trade expects USDA to rate the US corn crop 68 pct good/ex and unchanged from last week. Most est US 2017/18 corn carryout near 2,000 mil bu vs USDA 2,027. Lower est due to higher exports and ethanol use. Same group est US exports near 2,380 vs USDA 2,350. Heavy rains could fall across MN, IA, WI and IL over the next 10 days. This could slow crop maturation there.
Wheat closed lower and near session lower. Lower Russian wheat prices and talk of heavy nearby Russian wheat exports continues to force longs out of wheat. Weekly US wheat exports were near 18 mil bu vs 25 last year. This was higher than expected. Season to date exports are near 178 mil bu vs 274 last year. USDA goal is 1,025 vs 901 ly. Trade expects USDA to est US spring wheat harvest to be near 78 pct done versus 60 last week. At the close, WZ traded back below the last moving average of support with funds still long wheat. KWZ also trade back below support. Recent rains and drop in soybean and corn prices could increase US 2018 winter wheat acres.
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