August 28 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed


Soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, corn and KC wheat ended lower. Chicago wheat ended higher. US Dollar was lower. Most commodities were lower.

Soybeans closed lower and near session lows. Lack of resolution to US and China trade issues could lower China demand for US soybeans. Approaching US harvest could offer continued pressure on prices. One group estimate that 63 percent of the US 2018 soybean crop is rated above trend yield. 14 percent is below. Most feel that current conditions could suggest final US soybean yield could be higher than USDA estimate. Wire service reported that a survey of Brazil farmers suggest in 2019 Brazil farmers will increase soybean acres 3.2 pct. This is the 12th year in a row that Brazil farmers will increase acres. It is early to guess US 2019 planted acres by crop. Farm Futures were out today suggest US farmer will plant 87.5 soybean acres in 2019 vs 89.6 this year. Some feel to get the US 2019/20 soybean carryout down to 400 mil bu, US farmers will need to plant 6.0 mil less soybean acres in 2019.

Soybean Futures Chart


Corn futures closed lower and near session lows. Weaker trade could be linked to approaching US harvest and potential for increase US farmer hedge pressure. USDA rated the corn crop 68 pct good/ex vs 68 last week and 61 average. Some feel that the crop could be 2 weeks ahead of normal in maturation. Early corn harvest yields are not as high as expected but best crops are in IN, OH, NE and IA. Some had thought that US and Mexico announced trade deal would support corn prices. Concern that US Congress may need to approve a new deal, which most would like to include Canada, may take some time. Others though feel is Canada would agree to the new deal Congress could take a voice vote on the new deal. Funds are estimated to be short 47,000 contracts of corn. Some feel that drop in World supply suggest corn prices area undervalued. Funds record short was in Nov of 2017 when they were short 230,000 corn contracts. It is early to guess US 2019 planted acres by crop. Farm Futures were out today suggest US farmer will plant 90.8 mil corn acres vs 89.1 this year. Some feel they could switch even more acres to corn from soybeans.

Corn Futures Chart


Wheat closed mixed. Chicago futures may have found support by new Egypt tender for wheat. Russia was the seller which may have offered equal resistance. WZ has now dropped 95 cents from the August 2 high near 6.13 to todays low near 5.18. Much of this due to a disappointing USDA August World supply and demand and increase Russia offers for export. Egypt bought mostly Russian wheat in their tender today. Bulls feel this may be one step closer to Russia selling its export surplus. Bears feel Russia trade could limit the upside in prices. It is early to guess US 2019 planted acres by crop. Farm Futures were out today and suggest US farmer will plant 48.3 mil US wheat acres  vs 47.8 this past year.

Wheat Futures Chart

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2018-08-28T20:27:37+00:00 August 28th, 2018|