By Steve Freed
Soybean, soymeal, soyoil corn and wheat are higher. Along with higher US stocks, Crude and US Dollar grains may have found support for a new trade deal between US, Canada and Mexico. This could continue the grains flow between countries.
Soybean prices rallied. SX tested 8.64. This is back above the 50 day moving average. News of a new trade deal between US, Canada and Mexico may have helped prices. Continued talk of slower Brazil export offers and Argentina soymeal offers may also be helping prices. Some suggested US farmers could begin to sell 2019 cash soybean near 9.25 SX19. Weekly US soybean exports were near 22 mil bu vs 33 last year. Season to date exports are near 108 mil bu vs 146 last year. Slow export demand due to lower China demand continues to offer long term resistance to prices. USDA goal is 2,060 vs 2,130 last year. Some could see final exports closer to 1,800. This could raise final US 2018/19 soybean carryout to closer to 1,100 vs USDA 845.
Corn futures closed higher. Good weekly US corn exports, wet US Midwest 10 and 30 day forecast and buying after US, Canada and Mexico agreed to new trade deal may have helped prices. US farmer still a slow seller of corn. Forecast of 3-5 inches of rain across parts of KS, NE, IA, IL and WI could slow harvest there. Trade est US corn harvest near 26 pct vs 16 last week. Crop is still rated 69 pct good/ex vs 69 last week. Weekly US corn exports were near 53 mil bu vs 34 last year. Season to date exports are near 174 mil bu vs 118 last year. Strong export demand due to lower South America supplies continues to support prices. USDA goal is 2,400 vs 2,425 last year. Some could see final exports closer to 2,500. Still, potential for lower processing demand could raise final US 2018/19 corn carryout to closer to 1,850 vs USDA 1,774. Same group could see US 2019 corn acres to increase and given similar total demand, US 2019/20 carryout could increase to 2,100 mil bu.
Wheat futures closed unchanged. Slow US weekly exports continues to offer little interest in buying futures near season lows. WZ failed to trade back over Fridays high. WZ support is still near 5.00. Resistance is near 5.27, then 5.37 then 5.60. Trade estimates US winter wheat planting near 44 pct done vs 28 last week. Weekly US wheat exports were near 13 mil bu vs 27 last year. Season to date exports are near 254 mil bu vs 366 last year. Slow export demand due to higher nearby Black Sea supplies continues to offer resistance to prices. USDA goal is 1,025 vs 901 last year. Some could see final exports closer to 975. This could raise final US 2018/19 wheat carryout to closer to 1,005 vs USDA 935. Same group could see US 2019 wheat acres to increase and given lower export demand, US 2019/20 carryout could increase to 1,165 mil bu.
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