October 31 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed


Soybeans opened lower, traded higher, traded lower, closed higher, recent weakness due to ongoing talk that US will impose additional tariffs in the remainder of China imports if November talks between POTUS and POC do not result in a new trade deal. Most look for this weeks US soybean export sales to remain below level the help reach USDA goal. Lighter than expected deliveries on the Nov and talk of record US September soybean crush may have supported prices. Brazil soybean export prices are near $395 versus US near $317 and Argentina $372. Some feel lower US prices could support prices. Argentina farmer old crop and new crop sales behind average. Brazil soybean crop plantings are well ahead of last year. Market still asking how high is US 2018/19 soybean carryout? Will US and China come to a trade deal?

Soybean Futures Chart


Corn futures edged lower. A drier US Midwest 2 week forecast and favorable weather in Brazil and Argentina may be offering strong overhead resistance. Ukraine corn prices have dropped to near $161. Argentina is near $155. US prices are near $162. Fact World prices have dropped below US could slow new US sales. One private estimate of the 2018 US corn crop will be out Friday. USDA next report will be November 8. Weekly US ethanol production was up from last week. Stocks were down from last week. Margins remain negative. Trade estimates weekly US corn export sales near 500-800 mt vs 349 last week. Last week US total corn export commit was near 21.4 mmt versus 16.2 last year. USDA goal is 62.8 mmt vs 61.9 last year. Total World trade is est near 163.0 mmt vs 147.1 last year. USDA est World corn end stocks near 159.3 vs 198.1 last year. Some feel stocks may be higher esp in China and 2019/20 stocks could increase If World crops bounce back to near 1,178 mmt seen in 2016 vs 1,034 last year.


Wheat futures tested support today on reports that Russia October wheat exports were a record 16 mmt versus 13 last year. November line up could be close to October. Higher US Dollar is also offering resistance to wheat futures. Trade is still waiting for news that Russian supplies are running low and export demand could shift to US. Weekly US wheat exports sales and US shipments are running well behind the pace to reach USDA goal. USDA rated the 2019 US winter wheat crop 53 pct good/ex versus 52 last year. This was below some private estimates. KS is near 42. Recent rains have reduced the outlook for late planted crops there. Wheat future remain in a carry that slows new forward demand. Normal 2019 World crops should bring deferred futures down to nearby values.

Wheat Futures Chart

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2018-10-31T20:08:13+00:00 October 31st, 2018|