by Steve Freed,
2018 is done. Soybean and corn closed a little lower today. Soymeal and wheat traded lower. Machines pushed US stocks and Crude around. Some hope POTUS cuts a trade deal with China to help push US stocks up. At the same time, hope is POC cuts s deal that will help kick-start their slowing economy.
For the year, soybeans were down 95 cents; Soymeal down $14.00 and Soyoil down 580 points. Weekly US soybean exports were near 25 mil bu vs 44 last year. Season to date exports are near 606 mil vs 1,043 last year. Total US 2018 September 1 soybean supply was estimated near 5,024 million bushels versus 4,781 the previous year. Most suggest US December 1 stocks near 3,825 million bushels versus 3,161 last year. Higher final demand number and slight drop in the final US 2018 crop has some looking for the final US 2018/19 soybean carryout to drop to closer to 845 million bushels versus USDA estimate of 955. Currently most analyst look for US 2019 soybean acres to drop 5.0 versus last year. This could produce a crop near 4,170 million bushels, Total demand could be near 4,300 versus 4,185 this year. This could suggest a 2019/20 US soybean carryout near 740. This would suggest US summer weather and fund money flow could be key to 2019 soybean price outlook.
Corn futures ended unchanged. For the month, Corn prices are down 4 cents. For the year, Corn prices are down 18 cents. US government is still in partial shutdown. Weekly US corn exports were near 36 mil bu vs 28 last year. Season to date exports are near 705 mil vs 417 last year. Next key USDA report will be Jan 11. Key parts to the USDA Jan 11 corn report could be a 1 bpa reduction in the final US 2018 crop. Most look for US Dec 1 US corn stocks near 12,000 million bushels versus 12,567 last year. This has some looking for the final US 2018/19 corn carryout to drop to closer to 1,587 million bushels versus USDA estimate of 1,781. This could help support March corn futures near 3.70 and could even help them test 3.90. Currently most analyst look for US 2019 corn acres to increase 3.0 versus last year. This could produce a crop near 15,000 million bushels, Total demand could be near 15,115 versus 15,080 this year. This could suggest a 2019/20 US corn carryout near 1,587. This would suggest US summer weather could be key to 2019 corn price outlook.
For the week, Winter Wheat prices were down roughly 11 cents for Soft Red Winter, down 13 in the Hard Red Winter, and down 12 for Hard Red Spring. For the month, Winter Wheat prices are down roughly 14 cents for Soft Red Winter, down 14 for Hard Red Winter, and down 27 for HRS. For the year, Winter Wheat prices are up roughly 7 cents for Soft Red Winter, down 23 for Hard Red Winter, and down 88 for Hard Red Spring. Weekly SU wheat exports were near 14 mil bu vs 10 last year. Season to date exports are near 465 vs 535 last year. US government is still in partial shutdown. Next key US USDA report is Jan 11. Total US 2018 September 1 wheat supply was estimated near 2,379 million bushels versus 2,266 the previous year. Most look for US December 1 stocks near 1,974 million bushels versus 1,873 last year. A lower final export number has some looking for the final US 2018/19 wheat carryout to drop to closer to 993 million bushels versus USDA estimate of 974. This could continue to offer resistance to March soybean futures near 5.40 and test support near 5.00. Besides export demand, World 2019 crop size will also be key to prices.
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