July 1 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

Soybean, soymeal, soyoil, corn and wheat traded lower. US Dollar was sharply higher. Metals and 30 year bond were lower.


Soybean traded lower. November soybeans had an outside day closing below Fridays low. Turnaround in prices may be linked to talk that China did not agree to buy US Ag goods despite POTUS comments and the return to trade talk between the 2 countries. Slow US soybean exports and expectations that todays US soybean crop ratings will show an improvement from last week and that this weeks weather could also improve next Mondays ratings may have also triggered new selling. Last week USDA rated the soybean crop 54 pct good/ex. Best was NE at 75 pct. Lowest was OH at 30, MO at 36 and IN at 41. Wire service poll suggest todays soybeans rating at 56. Weekly US soybean exports were near 26 mil bu vs 31 last year. Season to date exports are near 1,363 mil bu vs 1,825 last year. USDA goal is 1,700 vs 2,129 last year.

Soybean Futures Chart


Dec corn futures continued to trade lower following steep losses on Friday. Funds may have continued to liquidate out of the net futures long after USDA estimated US 2019 corn acres well above trade expectations. USDA NASS did say that 17 pct of the corn crop was not yet planted at the time of the survey and will resurvey key states in July. Any changes will be updated at the August 11 report. Trade had estimated that US 2019 corn acres were near 86.7 million acres versus USDA March guess of 92.8 and USDA Friday guess of 91.7. The difference has been worth 46 cents on the downside. On top of the report, NOAA July weather outlook calls for below normal temps and above normal rains for much of the US Midwest. There is no sign of heat or dryness that could hurt the corn crop. Last week USDA rated the US corn crop 56 pct good/ex. Best was NE at 77 pct. Lowest was MO at 28, OH at 39 and IN at 43. Wire service poll suggest todays corn ratings could be near 57 pct good/ex. Weekly corn exports were near 10 mil bu vs 60 last year. Season to date exports are near 1,643 vs 1,801 last year. USDA goal is 2,200 vs 2,438 last year.

Corn Futures Chart


Sep Chicago wheat traded back below the 20 day and 200 day moving average. Funds were estimated to be small net longs going into the US winter wheat harvest and USDA June acreage and stocks report. Talk that US winter wheat yields were improving as harvest advances and that the same is true for the Russian winter wheat yields may have also triggered new selling. Most look for US winter wheat harvest to be near 30 pct done and the crop still rated 61 pct good/ex. Weekly US wheat exports were near 22 mil bu vs 11 last year. Season to date exports are near 69 mil bu vs 54 last year. USDA goal is 900 vs 950 last year. Despite some reports it does not appear that China has agreed to buy any new US Ag goods as trade talks resume. This may also be weighing on grain prices.

Wheat Futures Chart

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2019-07-01T20:45:50+00:00 July 1st, 2019|