July 3 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

Soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, corn and wheat traded higher. Talk of China buying US corn, soybean and pork offered support. Higher east US Midwest corn basis supported nearby corn. US stocks, Dollar, Crude, Gold, and 30 year bond was higher. CBOT grains are closed tomorrow.


Soybeans traded higher. Some evening up before the Holiday may have offered support. Wire service reports that China may buy a small amount of US soybean as a gesture of goodwill before trade talks resume offered additional support. Noon US Midwest weather maps are a little drier over the next 2 weeks. Managed funds were net buyers of 7,000 soybeans, 4,000 soymeal and 4,000 soyoil. Combined weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 600-1,200 mt vs 490 last week. This includes new sales to China. Informa estimated US 2019 soybean acres near 80.0 versus 89.2 last year. They estimate the US soybean crop near 3,900 mil bu versus 4,544 last year. Key to prices remain final US supply, China buying or lack of and money flow.

Soybean Futures Chart


Corn futures traded higher. Managed funds were net buyers of 14,000 contracts. Talk that China may buy US corn and pork as a gesture of goodwill before trade talks resume offered support. Continued higher US east Midwest corn basis also offered support. Some feel US farmers will be reluctant sellers of stored grain until their 2019 crop is done pollinations. US farmers are also upset at WOB lowering acres and yield in June then NASS estimating US corn acres higher than expected last week. Some crop scout traveling in Indiana say acres are lower than USDA guess and the crop is worse than USDA is reporting. Combined old crop and new crop weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 200-700 mt vs 405 last week. Some fear record large Brazil supplies could reduce demand for US corn exports and help offset the lower supply. Informa estimated US 2019 corn acres near 90.7 mil versus 89.1 last year. Crop is estimated near 13,365 mil bu vs 14,420 last year. Weekly US ethanol production was up from last week and last year. Stocks were also higher than last week and last year. Margins remain negative.

Corn Futures Chart


Wheat futures rallied in sympathy with higher corn prices. Corn rallied due to talk of new China buying and higher east Midwest basis levels. Wheat has been trending lower this week on talk of higher US and Russia wheat yield and even better quality especially higher Russia protein. US south plains weather should be favorable for harvest, US spring week 2 week forecast should also be favorable. Weekly US wheat export sales are estimate near 250-550 mt vs 612 last week. This week East Europe wheat was a steep discount to US for Egypt. Informa estimated the US 2019 winter wheats crop at 1,290 mil bu vs USDA June estimate of 1,274. Other spring was estimated at 586 mil bu vs 632 last year. Durum crop was estimated at 54 mil bu vs 77 last year. Dec Chicago wheat has key moving average support near 5.00-5.05 and resistance near 5.30-5.40.

Wheat Futures Chart

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2019-07-03T17:56:41+00:00 July 3rd, 2019|