July 16 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

Soybean and corn continues to take out weather premium. Soymeal and soyoil were also lower. Wheat closed slightly lower. US Dollar was higher. Crude traded lower after testing $60.


November soybean trade back below the 20 and 100 day moving averages. Yesterday, managed funds turned sellers after the second week US Midwest weather forecast hinted of normal temps and rainfall. Todays noon maps also suggested a cold front forecast for the north Midwest might did down into IA and N Il over the weekend. IL and IA areas were forecasted to miss most of the rains over the next 5-7 days. Fact USDA increased weekly soybean crop ratings and POTUS said it may take a while for a trade deal with China weighed on prices. POTUS also suggested he could still impose new tariffs on the remaining China imports. USDA rated the US soybean crop near 54 pct good/ex versus 53 last week and 69 last year. IL is rated 41 pct good/ex versus 38 last week. IA is rated 63 pct good/ex vs 64 last week. NE is rated 71 pct good/ex vs 73 last week.

Soybean Futures Chart


Corn futures rejected the 4.60 price on the December. Our weather guy does not feel that end of July and August weather will be ideal but rains could fall across the north areas and tropical depression could drop rains across S IL and IN. Others look for pattern change next week. Most of the central Midwest will be hot and dry this week but cooler temps and scattered rains are possible early next week. Noon GFS weather models even hinted that north rains this week Could drop down into IA and N IL. USDA rated the US corn crop near 58 pct good/ex versus 57 last week and 72 last year. Improvement was in IL, IA, MO and OH. Still, IL is rated 42 pct good/ex versus 37 last week. IA is rated 62 pct good/ex vs 61 last week. NE is rated 76 pct good/ex vs 76 last week. 17 pct of the crop is pollinating vs 42 last year. December corn continues to trade in a wide range between 4.20 and 4.60. Some feel dryness across the central Midwest could support prices near 4.20. Slow export demand And large farmer ownership of last years crop could limit the upside unless there is a weather problem.

Corn Futures Chart


Chicago wheat futures rejected the recent highs near 5.60. WZ closed near 5.19 and below the 20 and 200 day moving averages.  WZ tested the 50 day moving average today near 5.15. Fact US winter wheat harvest is advancing and there is slow export demand for US wheat offers resistance. Continued high rating of the US spring wheat crop and forecast of normal rains across the US north plains also offers resistance. Wheat is also following the lower corn prices. US winter wheat harvest is moving along. 57 pct of the crop is harvested vs 71 last year. Farmer continues to sell. US spring wheat crop is rated 76 pct good/ex vs 78 last week and 80 last year. 78 pct of the crop is headed vs 87 last year. Weekly US wheat exports were near 11 mil bu vs 17 last year. Season to date exports are near 107 vs 82 last year.

Wheat Futures Chart

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2019-07-16T21:28:06+00:00 July 16th, 2019|