September 12 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

SOYBEANS

November soybean settled up 29 cents at 895 ½. Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 1,172,200 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year for a total of 1,172,200. As of September 5, cumulative soybean sales stand at 19.7% of the USDA forecast for 2019/2020 (Next) Marketing Year versus a 5 year average of 40.3%. Sales of 750,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.Net meal sales came in at 38,000 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 81,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 119,100.As of September 5, cumulative soybean meal sales stand at 13.6% of the USDA forecast for 2019/2020 (next) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 23.0%. Sales of 192,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.Net oil sales came in at 8,200 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 2,600 for the next marketing year for a total of 10,800.As of September 5, cumulative soybean oil sales stand at 96.8% of the USDA forecast for 2018/2019 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 100.4%. Sales of 8,100 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. The September USDA Supply & Demand report for soybeans was viewed as slightly negative with the average yield coming in at 47.9 bushels per acre versus the average estimate of 47.1 bushels per acre (45.5-49.0 range) and compared to the August USDA estimate of 48.5 bushels per acre. Total production is seen at 3.633 billion bushels versus the average estimate of 3.581 billion bushels (3.434-3.745 billion range) and compared to 3.680 billion bushels in August. The harvested acreage came in at 75.9 million acres versus the average estimate of 75.9 million (74.3-78.0 range) and compared to 75.9 million last month. The 2019-20 ending stocks are estimated at 640 million tonnes versus the average estimate of 655 million bushels (434-797 million range) compared with 755 million in the August report. World ending stocks came in at 99.2 million tonnes versus the average estimate at 100.6 million tonnes (89.6-119.0 million range) and compared with 101.74 million tonnes in the August update.

Soybean Futures Chart

CORN

December corn settled at 367 ¼ up 7 ¼ cents. Net weekly export sales for corn, came in at 498,100 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year for a total of 498,100. As of September 5, cumulative corn sales stand at 13.8% of the USDA forecast for 2019/2020 (next) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 23.9%. Sales of 868,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. The September USDA Supply & Demand report for corn was viewed as bearish with the US corn yield coming in at 168.2 bushels per acre versus the average estimate of 166.5 bushels (162.0-171.5 range) and compared to 169.5 bushels in August. The harvested acres came in at 82 million acres versus the average estimate of 81.3 million (77.9-82.0 million range) and compared to 82.0 million last month. Total production was seen at 13.799 billion bushels versus the average estimate of 13.551 billion bushels (12.620-14.003 billion range) and compared to 13.901 billion in August. The US ending stocks came in at 2.190 billion bushels versus the average estimate at 1.930 billion bushels (1.482-2.269 billion range) and compared to 2.181 billion last month. World ending stocks came in at 306.27 million tonnes versus the average estimate at 302.2 million tonnes (292.7-310.0 million range) and compared to 307.7 million in August.

Demand numbers were held mostly steady with a small adjustment lower by just 25 million bushels for ethanol. Beginning stocks were higher and production was a bit lower and this left ending stocks up slightly. The USDA seems to be sticking with their harvested acreage estimate and this has brought about plenty of confusion with millions of acres planted after June 1st.  The news is bearish and 352 ¼ and 347 ¾ are next support for December corn. If the market closes higher on bearish USDA data, the market may have already put in a significant low. Look for bounce to at least 379 ¾.

Corn Futures Chart

WHEAT

December wheat settled at 483 ¾ up 6 ¼ cents on the day. Net weekly export sales for wheat, came in at 610,900 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and -8,200 for the next marketing year for a total of 602,700. As of September 5, cumulative wheat sales stand at 45.2% of the USDA forecast for 2019/2020 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 50.8%. Sales of 377,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. The September USDA Supply & Demand report for wheat was viewed as neutral. 2019-20 US ending stocks coming in at 1.014 billion bushels versus the average estimate of average estimate at 1.020 billion bushels (0.989-1.066 billion range) and compared to 1.014 billion in August. The world ending stacks came in at a record high 286.5 million tonnes versus the average estimate of 284.6 million tonnes (268.0-288.1 million range) and compared to 285.4 million last month. Russian 2019-20 wheat production came in at 72.5 million tonnes versus 73.0 million tonnes in August with exports coming in at 34 million tonnes versus 34.0 million last month. Australian wheat production came in at 19 million tonnes versus 21.0 million last month and Argentina wheat production came in at 20.5 million tonnes versus 20.5 million last month.

Wheat Futures Chart

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2019-09-12T20:33:52+00:00 September 12th, 2019|