September 13 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed


November soybeans settled at 898 ¾, up 3 ¼ cents on the day leaving the market up 41 cents on the week. December soybean meal settled at $301.50, up 0.20 cents on the day leaving the market up $8.50 on the week. December soybean oil settled at 29.43, up 0.27 on the day leaving the market up 0.78 on the week. December crush settled at 88 ¼ cents, down 13 ¾ cents on the week. November soybeans traded up to 903 ½ early in the session, the highest level since July 30th. Positive trade developments between the US and China continue with the Chinese Ministry indicating that soybeans and pork will be excluded from additional punitive tariffs. China is also encouraging companies to buy US farm products, including soybeans and pork, as the government seeks to lessen the impact of the trade war. The US Soybean Export Council reported that China has bought upwards of 15 cargoes of US soybeans off the PNW this week. There was additional talk that a total of 1.0 to 3.0 million tonnes might be booked. US exporters announced the sale of 204,000 tonnes of soybeans to China this morning.

Yesterday’s September USDA Supply & Demand report for soybeans was viewed as neutral with the average yield coming in at 47.9 versus 48.5 bushels last month. NASS used an implied pod weight that was very optimistic. At .35 grams, it would be the highest in ten years. Total production is seen at 3.633 billion bushels versus 3.680 billion bushels in August. The 2019-20 ending stocks are estimated at 640 million tonnes versus 755 million in the August report. The demand increases were seen in the 2018-19 crop year with exports up 45 million and the crush up 20 million bushels. World ending stocks came in at 99.2 million tonnes versus 101.74 million tonnes in the August report. The average estimate for Monday’s August NOPA crush is 162.42 million bushels (160.0-169.0 million range) versus 168.09 in July and compared to 158.89 last year. Oil stocks are estimated at 1.396 million pounds (1.335-1.450 million range) versus 1.467 million pounds in July and compared to 1.623 million last year.

Soybean Futures Market


December corn settled at 368 ¾, up 1 ½ cents on the week leaving the market up 13 ¼ cents on the week. The market put in a bullish outside week high higher close. Yesterday’s report was slightly bearish but the market closed strong off of short covering buying. The September USDA Supply & Demand report showed US corn yield at 168.2 bushels per acre versus 169.5 bushels in August. NASS had the corn objective yield with the lowest plant population since 2012 and the ear weight the lowest since 2015. Ear weight could easily move lower if the growing season runs short. The harvested acres came in at 82 million acres versus unchanged from last month. Total production was seen at 13.799 billion bushels versus 13.901 billion in August. The US ending stocks came in at 2.190 billion bushels versus 2.181 billion last month.

The USDA increased the 2018-19 ending stocks by 85 million bushels by lowering ethanol usage 50 million bushels and exports 25 million bushels. They also cut 2019-20 ethanol usage by 25 million bushels. World ending stocks came in at 306.27 compared to 307.7 million in August. For the week so far, the market is up 12 cents with a potential outside week higher developing. The trade may still be looking for yields to ratchet lower in subsequent reports. If you recall, last year the September report pegged the corn yield at 181.3 bushels per acre only to see it lowered to 178.9 in December with a final yield at 176.4 bushels per acre. The open interest in corn went up 4,522 contracts.

Corn Futures Market


Chicago December wheat settled at 483 ½, down ¼ cent on the day leaving the market up 19 ¾ cents on the week. Kansas City December wheat settled at 399 ¾, down 3 ¾ cents on the day leaving the market up 6 ½ cents on the week. Matif December futures settled at 170.25 Euros, up 2.1% on the week. Chicago December wheat tested the 50 day moving average at 491 early in the day and failed. Kansas City December traded up to 410 early in the session, the highest since August 13th. Yesterday’s September USDA Supply & Demand report came in as expected with 2019-20 US ending stocks coming in at 1.014 billion bushels, unchanged from the August report. The world ending stocks came in at a record high 286.5 million tonnes versus 285.4 million last month. Russian 2019-20 wheat production came in at 72.5 million tonnes versus 73.0 million tonnes in August with exports unchanged at 34 million tonnes.

Australian wheat production came in at 19.0 million tonnes versus 21.0 million last month and Argentina wheat production came in unchanged at 20.5 million tonnes. SovEcon pegged the 2019-20 Russian wheat production at 74.9 million tonnes from 74.4 million previously. An FC Stone survey has Russian 2019-20 wheat production at 74.7 million tonnes down from 75.8 million previously. Ukraine’s 2019-20 grain exports were seen at 10.8 million tonnes, up 49% versus last year. Wheat exports accounted for 6.5 million tonnes, up 64% from a year ago. The open interest in Chicago went down 1,715 contracts on Thursday with Kansas City up 1,433 contracts.

Wheat Futures Market

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2019-09-13T20:58:56+00:00 September 13th, 2019|