November 6 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

Soybeans, soymeal and corn traded lower. Soyoil and wheat traded higher. US stocks, US Dollar and Crude traded lower.

SOYBEANS

Wire services report that signing a Phase 1 trade deal between US and China may now be delayed until December as discussions continues over terms and venue to sign the deal. For the most parts over the last few months. US equities, energy markets, currency markets, grain markets and livestock markets especially hogs have been responding to the latest headline about US and China trade outlook. Word of a delay in signing could offer resistance to those markets. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 600-1,200 mt versus 943 last week. US soybean export prices are near $363 and Argentina is near $358. Brazil is getting needed rains. Their export soybean price is near $375. Weekly US soymeal export sales are estimated near 150-300 mt versus 179 last week. US soymeal export prices are near $336, Argentina is near $317. Brazil price is near $316. This week, USDA estimated US 2020 soybean acres near 84.0, crop near 4,200 and carryout near 518.

CORN

Corn futures traded lower. Concern over demand for US corn exports and USDA may not offer bullish corn numbers on Friday continues to weigh on prices. Farmer selling remains slow which is supporting higher domestic cash corn basis. This may be helping CZ gain on CH. There is also talk that the fact the US corn crop is high moisture and elevators may be closing or taking down time due to lack of drying capacity could slow harvest even more. There is also a LP gas shortage across the Midwest. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 300-650 mt versus 549 last week. US corn export prices are near $174, Argentina is near $165 and Ukraine is near $169. Brazil is getting needed rains. Their export corn price is near $174. Weekly US ethanol productions was up from last week but below last year. Stocks were up from last week but are down from last year. Margins turned lower. This week, USDA estimated US 2020 corn acres near 94.5, crop near 15,545 and carryout near 2,745.

WHEAT

Wheat futures traded mixed. WZ is near 5.17. KWZ is near 4.28. MWZ is near 5.25. Talk of lower Australian crop may have offered support. Lower corn and soybean price action may have weighed on prices. Brazil said they will allow 700 mt duty free wheat to be imported. They usually import 5.0 mmt annually and most of that is from Argentina. Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 350-600 mt versus 493 last week. US HRW export prices are near $211, France is near $200, Baltic is near $201 and Russia is near $208. This week, USDA estimated US 2020 wheat acres near 45.0, crop near 1,836 and carryout near 950. Trade expects USDA this Friday to estimate US 2019/20 wheat carryout near 1,030 mil bu versus 1,043 and World carryout near 286.8 mmt versus 287.8 estimated in October and 277.6 last year.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2019-11-06T23:41:35+00:00 November 6th, 2019|