By Steve Freed
Soybean and soymeal traded higher. Soyoil, corn and wheat traded lower. US stocks, US Dollar and Crude traded higher.
Soybean traded higher on talk that new progress was made concerning Phase 1 trade negotiations between US and China better than expected weekly US soybean export sales also helped soybean futures. Slow Argentina farmer selling raised talk that their crush may slow. This could be helping soymeal today. Brazil farmer has been an active seller of soybean this week. This could offer resistance. USDA crop report tomorrow. Bulls are hoping for lower numbers. Bears looking to sell rallies. Weekly US soybean export sales were up 1.8 mmt. Total commit is near 21.0 mmt versus 21.5 last year. China total US soybean export commit is near 7.1 mmt. Some feel China will take 14.1 mmt from the US versus 13.4 last year. USDA estimates US soybean exports at 48.3 mmt versus 47.5 last year. USDA estimate total World soybean trade near 149.4 mmt vs 148.5 last year. Brazil exports are est near 76.5
Corn traded lower. Talk of better US harvest weather, improving South America weather and continued slow demand for US exports continues to offer resistance to prices. Higher energy and equity trade may have offered support. USDA crop report tomorrow. Bulls are hoping for lower US numbers. Demand bears will be there to sell rallies. Actual USDA number will decide if funds add to net short position or begin to cover. Weekly US corn export sales were 487 mt. Total commit is near 11.9 mmt versus 22.5 last year. USDA estimates US corn exports at 48.2 mmt versus 52.4 last year. USDA estimate total World corn trade near 166.5 mmt vs 177.8 last year. Brazil exports are est near 34.0, Argentina 33.5 and Ukraine 30.0. USDA estimates World 2019/20 beginning stocks near 324 mmt, crop of 1,104 mmt, feed use 693 mmt, exports 166 and end stocks near 302. Some estimates World 2020/21 crop near 1,141 mmt, feed use 697, exports 171 and end stocks near 319.
Wheat futures traded lower. WZ is near 5.12. KWZ is near 4.24. MWZ is near 5.18. Concern about lower demand for US wheat exports and higher World 2020 supply offers resistance. Hope that USDA will reduce Argentina and Australia crop numbers tomorrow offers support near recent highs in futures. Talk that USDA could raise Russia and EU crop numbers tomorrow could weigh on prices. Weekly US wheat export sales were 360 mt. Total commit is near 14.9 mmt versus 13.7 last year. USDA estimates US wheat exports at 25.8 mmt versus 25.4 last year. USDA estimate total World wheat trade near 179.0 mmt vs 172.0 last year. EU exports are est near 28.0, Canada 24.5, Russia 34.0, Australia 10.0 and Argentina 14.0. USDA estimates World 2019/20 beginning stocks near 277 mmt, crop of 765 mmt, domestic use 755 mmt, exports 179 and end stocks near 287.
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