November 12 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

Soymeal, corn and wheat traded higher. Soybeans were unchanged. Soyoil traded lower. US Dollar was higher. POTUS today took credit for strong US economy. Is looking for a fair trade deal with China and hopes for a partial Phase 1 deal soon.

SOYBEANS

Soybeans traded unchanged. Good weekly US exports offered support. Drop in China hog prices on news of new outbreak of African Swine fever in areas hoped to be free of the disease, lack of new news on US and China trade and normal South America weather offered resistance. Weekly US soybean exports were near 1.3 mmt vs 1.3 last year. Total commit is near 10.9 mmt vs 10.0 last year. USDA goal is 48.3 versus 47.5 last year. USDA estimates total World Trade near 149.7 mmt vs 149.0 last year. USDA estimates Brazil 2020 crop near 123.0 mmt and exports near 76.0. USDA also estimates Argentina 2020 crop near 53 mmt and exports near 8.8 mmt. USDA estimates World soymeal trade near 67.2 mmt vs 66.4 last year. Argentina soymeal exports are est near 30.3 vs 28.8 last year.

Soybean Futures Market

CORN

Corn futures traded higher. Tuesday turnaround linked in part to oversold technical picture and strong domestic basis. Some feel value for Dec corn is below 3.70. Same group though also feels Dec corn resistance is near 4.00. Weekly US corn exports were near 560 mt vs 1.1 last year. Total commit is near 4.3 mmt vs 11.1 last year. USDA goal is 47.0 versus 52.4 last year. USDA estimates total World trade near 167.0 mmt vs 180.2 last year. USDA estimates Brazil 2020 crop near 101.0 mmt and exports near 36.0. USDA also estimates Argentina 2020 crop near 50 mmt and exports near 33.5 Mmt. USDA estimates Ukraine crop near 35.5 mmt vs 35. 8 last year. Ukraine exports are est near 30.0 mmt. China crop is estimated near 254.0 mmt vs 257.3 last year. China domestic use is estimated near 277.0 versus 273.0 last year. End stocks are estimated near 195.3 mmt versus 211.3 last year. Some feel actual stocks could be as low as 70.0 mmt.

Corn Futures Market

WHEAT

Wheat futures traded higher supported by record cold US temps. Weekly US exports wereshigher than expected, higher than last week and higher than last year. Just like corn may be finding support near 3.70 Dec corn, Dec Chicago wheat may be finding support near 5.00. Commercials may also be rolling Dec short to March as first delivery notice nears. Weekly US wheat exports were near 528 mt vs 354 last year. Total commit is near 11.4 mmt vs 9.3 last year. USDA goal is 25.8 versus 25.4 last year. USDA estimates total World trade near 180.6 mmt vs 171.8 last year. USDA estimates EU crop near 153.0 mmt and exports near 29.0. USDA also estimates Russia crop near 74.0 mmt and exports near 34.5 Mmt. USDA estimates Ukraine crop near 29.0 mmt vs 25.0 last year. Ukraine exports are est near 20.0 mmt. China crop is estimated near 132.0 mmt vs 131.4 last year. China domestic use is estimated near 128.0 versus 125.0 last year. End stocks are estimated near 145.6 mmt versus 139.7 last year.

Wheat Futures Market

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2019-11-12T20:10:57+00:00 November 12th, 2019|