November 29 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed | ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Soybeans and soymeal traded lower. US stocks, US Dollar and Crude traded lower. Soyoil, corn and wheat traded higher.


Soybeans and soymeal traded lower. Despite good weekly US soybean export sales and talk of record US October soybean Crush prices slipped lower on favorable Brazil weather and concern over US and China trade deal after POTUS sign a bill supporting Hong Kong protestors. Weekly US soybean export sales were near 61 mil bu. Total commit is near 928 mil bu vs 879 last year. USDA goal is 1,775 vs 1,748 last year. USDA est US soybean exports near 48.3 mmt vs 47.5 last year. Total World trade is est near 149.7 mmt vs 149.0 last year. Brazil exports are est near 76.0 mmt vs 74.7 last year. China soybean imports are est near 85.0 mmt vs 82.5 last year. USDA est World 2019/20 Soybean end stocks near 95.4 mmt vs 109.7 last year. Some est World 2020/21 end stocks near 104.4.


Corn futures traded higher. Some feel that seasonally, futures could rally as cash sales slow. Futures may be oversold as managed funds added to weakness linked to slow US export demand. Lack of Dec contract deliveries and strong domestic basis may have also helped futures today. Some historical data suggest March corn futures could rally to near 4.15 in December. Weekly US corn export sales were near 32 mil bu. Total commit is near 554 mil bu vs 1,006 last year. USDA goal is 1,850 vs 2,065 last year. USDA estimates US corn exports near 47.0 mmt versus 52.4 last year. This estimate could come down in December. World trade is estimated near 167.0 mmt vs 180.2 last year. Brazil is 36.0, Argentina is 33.5. Ukraine is 30.0. USDA est World 2019/20 corn end stocks near 296.0 mmt vs 320.0 last year. Some est World 2020/21 end stocks near 316.4 mmt.


Wheat futures made new highs for the move on what some say is a low holiday trade with limited interest in selling. Some link the buying to talk of lower Russia supplies, lower South Hemisphere supplies, some concern about EU plantings and following corn in a historical rally in December. Lack of December contract wheat deliveries may have also helped. March wheat may soon become overbought but could follow corn prices higher. Weekly US wheat export sales were near 22 mil bu. Total commit is near 596 mil bu vs 547 last year. USDA goal is 950 vs 936 last year. USDA est US wheat exports near 25.8 mmt vs 25.4 last year. World trade is estimated near 180.6 mmt vs 171.8 last year. Russia is 34.5. EU is 29.0. Canada is 24.5. Ukraine is 20.0. USDA est World 2019/20 wheat end stocks near 288.2 mmt vs 277.9 last year. Some est 2020/21 near 270.0.

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2019-11-29T18:54:20+00:00 November 29th, 2019|