By Steve Freed | ADM Investor Services, Inc.
USDA January report lacked market changing updates. Soybeans, soymeal and corn trade marginally higher. Wheat and soyoil traded marginally lower. New US sanctions on Iran weighted on US stocks, Dollar and Crude and offered support to gold.
Soybean and soymeal futures edged higher while soyoil edged lower. USDA estimated US 2019 soybean crop near 3,558 vs USDA 3,550 in Nov. Dec 1 US soybean stocks 3,252 mil bu vs 3,746 last year. US 19/20 soybean carryout was left at 475 mil bu South America 2 week weather forecast looks favorable for crops. USDA est Brazil 2020 soybean crop at 123.0 mmt unch from Dec. USDA est Argentina 2020 soybean crop at 53.0 mmt unch from Dec. USDA estimated World 2019/20 soybean end stocks near 96.6 mmt versus 96.4 previous. Some are estimating World 2020/21 soybean end stocks near 104.4 mmt. Most fundamentalist are looking for a rally in Q1 2020 to sell. Higher World crops in 2020 could weigh on prices and offset China buying US Ag goods. US weekly soybeans export sales were only 13 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,094 mil bu vs 1,115 last year. USDA goal is 1,775 vs 1,748 last year. US domestic soybean basis dropped before the USDA report.
Corn futures traded higher. USDA drop in US 2018 corn crop and lower than expected estimate of US Dec 1 corn stocks offered support and offset the fact they did not lower the US 2019 corn crop as much as the bulls were hoping for. USDA did say they will re survey states where farmers are still trying to harvest corn and if needed will adjust yield and acres in the spring. USDA estimated US 2019 corn crop near 13,692 vs USDA 13,661 in Nov. Dec 1 US corn stocks 11,389 mil bu vs 11,937 last year. US 2019/20 corn carryout was estimated at 1,892 mil bu versus 1,910 previous. South America 2 week weather forecast looks favorable for crops. USDA est Brazil 2020 corn crop near 101.0 mmt unch from Dec. USDA est Argentina 2020 corn crop near 50.0 mmt also unch from Dec. USDA estimated World 2019/20 corn end stocks near 297.8 mmt versus 300.5 previous. Some are estimating World 2020/21 corn end stocks near 316.4 mmt. Most fundamentalist are looking for a rally in Q1 2020 to sell. Higher World crops in 2020 could weigh on prices and offset China buying US Ag goods. US weekly corn export sales were only 6 mil bu. Total commit is near 729 mil bu vs 1,271 last year. USDA goal is 1,775 vs 2,065 last year.
Wheat futures traded higher. WH is near 5.64. KWH is near 4.94. MWH is near 5.57. Funds continue to support and net long Chicago wheat position. USDA estimated US 2019 Dec 1 US wheat stocks 1,834 mil bu vs 2,009 last year. US 2019/20 wheat carryout was estimated near 965 mil bu versus 974 previous. US 2020 winter wheat acres are est near 30.80 vs 31.16 last year. USDA estimated World 2019/20 wheat end stocks near 288.0 mmt versus 289.5 previous. Some are estimating World 2020/21 wheat end stocks near 270.0. Most fundamentalist are looking for a rally in Q1 2020 to sell. Higher World crops in 2020 could weigh on prices. US weekly wheat export sales were only 3 mil bu Total commit is near 695 mil bu vs 658 last year. USDA goal is 975 vs 936 last year. USDA est Russia crop near 73.5 mmt vs 71.7 last year, EU crop 154.0 vs 136.8 last year and Australia 15.6 mmt vs 17.3 last year.
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