January 23 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed | ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Soybeans and soyoil traded lower. Soymeal was unchanged. Corn and wheat traded higher. US Stocks and Crude was lower. US Dollar, Bonds and gold traded higher.


Soybeans traded lower on lack of new China buying and talk that early Brazil soybean harvest yields could suggest a record crop. Some dryness in Argentina and lack of US farmer selling is offering support. March soybeans is trading below key moving averages And suggest momentum has turned lower and could test support near 8.80. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 600-1,000 mt versus 711 last week. Trade will need to see more sales especially to China to reverse the down trend. British think Tank Marex Spectron is looking for continued lower price action due to lower than expected Asian demand and talk of record 2020 Brazil soybean harvest. USDA estimates World soybean trade near 149 mmt vs 149 last year. Brazil is est near 76 mmt versus 75 last year. US is 48 mmt vs 47 last year. China imports are est near 85 mmt vs 82 last year.


March corn futures shot through key resistance near 3.92. Close above this price could suggest a higher trend. Next resistance is near 4.02. The rally was linked in part to new demand for US export corn and talk that US corn export prices are cheaper than Argentina. The rally was met with increase US farmer selling who had resting orders near 3.92. There should be additional orders every penny higher. Trade will need addition export buying to Push futures higher. Weekly US ethanol production was down from last week but still above last year. Stocks were above last week and last year. Margins remain negative. This weeks production pace suggest annual corn use near 5,500 mil bu vs USDA est of 5,375. Poor margins could reduce weekly production unless China buys US ethanol. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 500-950 mt vs 784 last week. USDA est World corn Trade near 165 mmt vs 181 last year. US is 45 vs 52 ly. Brazil is 36 vs 42. Argentina is 33.5 vs 36. Ukraine is 30.5 vs 30.3.


Wheat futures closed mixed. WH is near 5.79. KWH is near 4.91. MWH is near 5.55. Interesting news day in wheat. Some profit taking near 4 year highs offered resistance. Continued talk that French protest is slowing EU wheat exports and pushing their Prices higher. Slow farmer selling and export selling has also pushed Russia wheat prices higher. There were also report that Argentina may have oversold the 2020 wheat supply. This and talk that China might buy US wheat in the new trade deal also has helped futures rally. Still one commodity Bank still thinks normal 2020 World crops and wheat futures should trend lower. Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 300-700 mmt vs 650 last week. USDA estimates World wheat trade near 181 mmt vs 173 last year. US is 26.5 vs 25.5 ly. EU is 31 vs 23. Russia is 34 vs 36 ly. Ukraine is 20 vs 16 ly. Argentina is 13 vs 12 ly.

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2020-01-23T20:46:24+00:00 January 23rd, 2020|