February 10 Afternoon Comments

SOYBEANS

Soybeans and soymeal traded higher. There were rumors that China may have bought 2-3 cargoes of US new crop soybeans. Word that the World largest shipper of soymeal filed for bankruptcy in Argentina may have also helped soymeal gain on soyoil. Weekly US soybean exports were near 22 mil bu versus 42 last year. Season to date exports are near 1,000 mil bu vs 835 last year. USDA goal is 1,775 vs 1,748 last year. Some could see final exports closer to 1,800. Trade average for US 2019/20 soybean carryout is near 443 mil bu versus USDA January estimate of 475. Range of guesses is 320-520. Pretty big range for a February report. Key will be USDA estimate of US export use. The average trade guesses for US 2019/20 soybean carryout is not low enough to push futures higher. Mixed views on if USDA WOB will try to adjust US exports and carryout based on US Phase 1 deal with China.

CORN

Corn futures traded lower. Concern over lower global corn demand, continued slow pace of US exports and talk of higher 2020 global supplies continues to offer resistance to corn prices. There were rumors that China may be looking for US sorghum. There is talk that SE China is seeing shortages of feed and in China pork supply is tight. Weekly US corn exports were near 30 mil bu vs 29 last year. Season to date exports are near 452 mil bu vs 915 last year. USDA goal is 1,775 vs 2,065 last year. Some could see final exports closer to 1,700. Trade average for US 2019/20 corn carryout is near 1,864 mil bu versus USDA January estimate of 1,892. Range of guesses is 1,788-1,942. Key will be USDA estimate of US domestic and export use. The average trade guesses for US 2019/20 corn carryout are not low enough to push futures higher. Mixed views on if USDA WOB will try to adjust US exports and carryout based on US Phase 1 deal with China. World Weather is looking for a wet and cool US Midwest spring and a warm and dry summer. Hope is that spring is not as wet as last year and summer is not as bad as 2012.

WHEAT

Wheat futures closed mixed. WH was down 7 cents and near 5.52.  WH is back near the 50 day moving average support level. Trade below could trigger additional fund long liquidation with next level of support near 5.31. KWH was unchanged and near 4.71. MWH was near 5.33. Weekly US wheat exports were near 19 mil bu versus 20 last year. Season to date exports are near 631 mil bu vs 565 last year. USDA goal is 975 vs 936 last year. Trade average for US 2019/20 wheat carryout is near 954 mil bu versus USDA January estimate of 965. Range of guesses is 934-975. Pretty narrow range. Key will be USDA estimate of US export use. The average trade guesses for US 2019/20 wheat carryout may not be low enough to push futures higher. Mixed views on if USDA WOB will try to adjust US exports and carryout based on US Phase 1 deal with China.

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2020-02-10T22:05:21+00:00 February 10th, 2020|