Feb 11 Afternoon Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,


Soybeans edged higher after USDA lowered US 2019/20 carryout due to higher exports and raised China imports. USDA raised World soybean 2019/20 carryout and their estimate of the Brazil 2020 Crop. Brazil soybean Export prices are cheaper to China than US. USDA lowered US 2019/20 soybean carryout 50 mil bu due to higher exports but also raised World carryout 2 mmt and Brazil crop 2 mmt. Key now is when/if China buys US soybeans versus record 2020 South America supplies. USDA raised China soybean imports 3 mmt to 88.0. USDA left US soybean crush near 2,105 mil bu. USDA increased US 2019/20 soyoil carryout 69 mil lbs. Higher exports could not offset a lower estimate of biodiesel use. USDA dropped US soymeal end stocks due to a lower yield.

                                                       July soybean futures chart


Corn futures traded marginally lower. Talk that Argentina corn prices for export are now a discount to US offered resistance. Fact USDA left US 2029/20 carryout unchanged from January offered some resistance. USDA lowered US 2019/20 corn exports 50 mil bu and raised ethanol us 50 mil bu. US 2019/20 corn feed and residual use is still estimated at 5,525 mil bu vs 5,432 last year. Ethanol use is now estimated near 5,425 mil bu vs 5,376 last year. USDA dropped their export guess to 1,725 mil bu vs 2,065 last year. USDA dropped World corn carryout 1 mmt due to higher domestic use. Ukraine crop was estimated near 35.8 mmt with exports 31.0. Brazil crop was 101.0 mmt with exports near 36.0. Argentina crop was 50.0 mmt with exports are 33.5 mmt. US corn exports are 48.0 mmt vs 52.4 last year. China crop is still estimated near 260 mmt, imports 7 mmt and total domestic use near 279 mmt, This leaves end stocks near 199 mmt vs 210 ly.

                                                            July corn futures chart


Wheat futures traded lower led by Chicago. Talk commercials may be shipping spring wheat to Chicago for delivery plus fact Egypt bought Russia and Romanian wheat in their tender offered resistance. USDA lowered US 2019/20 wheat carryout 25 mil bu due to higher exports. Exports were increased mostly in spring wheat. USDA did increase China wheat imports 800 mt to 4.0 mmt. USDA now estimates US 2019/20 HRW carryout near 484 mil bu vs 516 ly. SRW carryout is 106 vs 158 last year. HRS carryout is est near 249 vs 263 last year. Some est 2020/21 HRW carryout near 432 mil bu, SRW carryout is 66 and HRS carryout is est near 345. USDA left World wheat end stocks near 288.0 mmt. Russia crop is 73.5 mmt with exports 34.0. EU crop is 154.0 mmt with exports 32.0. Canada crop is 32.3 mmt with exports 23.5.  Australia crop is 15.6 mmt with exports 8.2.

                                                 July Chicago wheat futures chart

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2020-02-11T20:34:52+00:00 February 11th, 2020|