Feb 12 Afternoon Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Soybeans traded higher. Some link this to hope China will soon control the spread of the coronavirus. China has asked food companies to reopen factories. US weekly soybean export sales are est near 600-1,000 mt vs 703 last week. Last week, total commit was near 32.3 mmt vs 30.3 last year. USDA now est US soybean exports near 49.6 mmt vs 47.5 last year. USDA est total World soybean trade near 151.5 mmt vs 148.1 last year. China imports are est now near 88.0 mmt versus 82.5 last year. There was talk that China was a buyer of Brazil beans last week. With Hightowers help we estimate the range of guess for US 2020/21 soybean carryout between 259-599 mil bu. Key is final yield.

Corn futures traded higher. Some link this to hope China will soon control the spread of the coronavirus which could begin to help their economy and increase demand for commodities. Corn futures were also becoming oversold and US farmers have become reluctant cash sellers. Could be some increase sales near 3.90 CH. USDA est 2019/20 on farm cash corn prices near 3.85 vs 3.61 last year. Weekly US ethanol production was down from last week but still up from last year. Stocks were up from last week and last year. Margins remain negative. US weekly corn export sales are est near 700-1,200 mt vs 1,247 mt last week. Last week, total commit was near 22.8 mmt vs 32.2 last year. USDA now est US corn exports near 43.8 mmt vs 52.4 last year. USDA est total World corn trade near 165.7 mmt vs 181.6 last year. With Hightowers help we estimate the range of guess for US 2020/21 corn carryout between 1,974-2,663 mil bu. Key is final yield and final demand.

Wheat futures traded higher. Some link this to higher financial and energy markets. Last week, managed funds were large sellers of grain contracts and reducing their long in Chicago wheat. Prices were also under pressure due to talk of spring wheat railing to Chicago for delivery. US weekly wheat export sales are est near 300-650 mt vs 338 mt last week. This week, Egypt bought Russian and Romanian wheat. Last week, total commit was near 21.2 mmt vs 17.9 last year. USDA now est US wheat exports near 27.2 mmt vs 25.4 last year. USDA est total World wheat trade near 182.8 mmt vs 172.5 last year. With Hightower’s help we estimate the range of guess for US 2020/21 wheat carryout between 647-821 mil bu. Key is final yield and final export demand.

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2020-02-12T20:36:21+00:00 February 12th, 2020|