February 13 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed | ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Soybeans edged higher. Soyoil, corn and wheat traded lower. Mixed news on China virus reduced volume. US stocks were lower. Crude was higher. US Dollar was higher. Gold was higher.

SOYBEANS

Soybeans founds support from rumors China may soon buy US new crop soybeans. Soymeal firmed on talk of lower Argentina soybean crush and slow Argentina farmers selling. Soyoil dropped following lower palmoil prices. Palmoil was down on concern over China demand. US weekly soybean export sales rose 644 mt. Total commit was near 32.9 mmt vs 30.3 last year. USDA now est US soybean exports near 49.6 mmt vs 47.5 last year. USDA est total World soybean trade near 151.5 mmt vs 148.1 last year. Next Friday, USDA will have their annual Outlook Forum. They will release new US 2020/21 soybean supply and demand estimates. We could see US 2020 soybean crop 4,370 vs 3,558. Trade still looking to sell China buying US Ag goods rally due to talk of higher 2020 global supply versus demand.

CORN

Corn futures traded lower. Concern that China may buy soybeans, pork and beef if they come in and buy US Ag goods versus feed grains weighed on prices. Fact Argentina corn prices are lower than US could limit new US export demand. US domestic cash corn basis remains firm on lack of farmer selling. US weekly corn export sales rose 968 mmt. Total commit was near 23.7 mmt vs 32.2 last year. USDA now est US corn exports near 43.8 mmt vs 52.4 last year. USDA est total World corn trade near 165.7 mmt vs 181.6 last year. Next Friday, USDA will have their annual Outlook Forum. They will release new US 2020/21 corn supply and demand estimates. We could see US 2020 corn crop near 15,440 mil bu vs 13,691 in 2019. This includes planted acres near 94.0 vs 89.1 last year and an yield of 178.0 vs 168.0 this past year. East states crop could be 4.5 billion bushels vs 3.7 last year. West states crop could be 7.8 billion bushels vs 7.1 last year. Trade still looking to sell China buying US Ag goods rally due to talk of higher 2020 global supply versus demand.

WHEAT

Wheat futures traded lower. WK is near 5.45. KWK is near 4.74. MWK is near 4.74. Concern that normal 2020 World wheat supplies could reduce demand for US export offered resistance. Mixed news concerning the China virus reduced trade volume. US cold weather snap is not expected to last long or hurt the US winter wheat crop. WK remains near 5.25 support and 5.60 resistance. US weekly wheat export sales rose 643 mt. Total commit was near 21.9 mmt vs 17.9 last year. USDA now est US wheat exports near 27.2 mmt vs 25.4 last year. USDA est total World wheat trade near 182.8 mmt vs 172.5 last year. Next Friday, USDA will have their annual Outlook Forum. They will release new US 2020/21 wheat supply and demand estimates. We could see US 2020 wheat crop near 1,920 vs 1,920.

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2020-02-13T20:02:54+00:00 February 13th, 2020|