February 18 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed | ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Soybeans and soyoil traded lower. Soymeal and corn were higher. Wheat was sharply higher. US stocks and Crude were lower. US Dollar and gold were higher.

SOYBEANS

Mixed trade in soybeans. Weaker Crude and concern China may wait to buy US soybeans when they buy plus talk of record 2020 South America soybean crops offered resistance. Higher US Dollar is giving more local currencies to Brazil and Argentina farmers. This also weighs on soybean and soymeal prices. Still, Argentina farmers remain a reluctant seller of his crop. US NOPA Jan soybean crush was a record 176.9 mil bu versus 171.6 last year. Private crop watchers raised their estimate of Brazil soybean crop 1 mmt to 125 mmt. They also raised the Argentina soybean crop 1 mmt to 54 mmt. Weekly US soybean exports were near 36 mil bu vs 39 last year. Season to date exports are near 1,038 mil bu vs 875 last year. USDA will issue new numbers for 2020/21 on Friday. Ranges for US 2020/21 soybean exports is between 1,950-2,100 mil bu.

CORN

Corn futures traded higher. CK traded back above Fridays high. Some of the buying was linked to word that China was going to grant waivers for US Ag import goods after March 2. This in line with the agreement under the new Phase 1 trade deal. There was some concern that the continued spread of the coronavirus may limit new China buying until the virus was under control. There was talk that the fear of the virus spreading was slowing movement of feedstuffs to where animals are produced. There is equal concern that the virus is reducing market supplies of meat. This could suggest China could be a buyer of US pork, beef, poultry, dairy products and wheat. Weekly US corn exports were near 31 mil bu vs 37 last year. Season to date exports are near 484 mil bu vs 952 last year. USDA goal is 1,725 vs 2,065 last year. USDA will issue new numbers for 2020/21 on Friday. Ranges for US 2020/21 corn exports is between 2,000-2,200 mil bu. Ranges for US 2020/21 corn carryout  is between 2,260-3,220 mil bu versus USDA last guess near 2,717.

WHEAT

Ok, WK was up 23 cents and near 5.65. KWK was up 20 cents and near 4.93. MWK was up 14 cents and near 5.49. Some early buying was linked to talk that after March 2 China would begin to offer to domestic buyers waivers to buy US Ag goods for imports. Some speculated that China would buy food goods that could be used by consumers quickly including pork, beef, poultry, dairy products and wheat. Then there was word that Australia dropped their 2020 crop due to dryness. But the final rumor that was the best was that Africa locust was going to move ingot India, Pakistan and China. Rumors that locust were near China border sent China wheat futures up sharply. Had to get out my Bible to see what is next.  Weekly US wheat exports were near 18 mil bu vs 13 last year. Season to date exports are near 651 mil bu vs 578 last year. USDA goal is 1,000 vs 936 last year. USDA will issue new numbers for 2020/21 on Friday. Ranges for US 2020/21 wheat exports is between 950-1,100 mil bu.

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2020-02-18T20:23:52+00:00 February 18th, 2020|