April 3 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed | ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Soybeans, soymeal and corn traded lower. Wheat and soyoil traded higher. US stocks were lower. US Dollar was higher. Crude was higher.


Soybean and soymeal traded lower. There is some concern about global meat and protein demand as the virus spreads. Almost half of the World population is in lock down. There is some concern about logistics in US, Argentina and Malaysia.  Price Index of 8 edible oils continues to trend lower. US soybean export commit is near 1,354 mil bu vs 1,601 last year. March South America soybean exports were near 12.7 mmt vs 9.2 last year. Informa lowered their estimate of World 2020 crop 2 mmt to near 368 versus 340 last year. One private group lowered Brazil crop to 120. Argentina lowered their crop to 49.5. Next week USDA will issue new US and World supply and demand estimates. Some feel they could lower US soybean export demand which could increase carryout.


Corn futures traded lower. Concern about US domestic and export demand continues to weigh on prices. Early trade was higher following higher energy prices. Funds turned sellers adding to an already large net short position. US corn export commit is near 1,256 mil bu vs 1,700 last year. Drop in US domestic ethanol production and talk final US exports may not meet USDA goal offers resistance to prices. Next week, USDA will issue new US and World supply and demand numbers. Trade expected them to lower US 2019/20 corn ethanol use and exports. China bought 567 mt US corn mostly new crop. Informa raised their estimate of World 2020 corn crop 9 mmt to near 1,167 versus 1,113 last year. They raised US crop 7 mmt to 403 versus 347 last year. Next week US Midwest could see cooler temps. This could reduce rainfall. On our farm in C IL best starting date to plant corn is near April 20.


Wheat futures traded higher. Fact Russia approved an export quota offered support. Russia weather is also drier than normal and as temps warm seasonally more rain will be needed. This week US wheat export commit is near 910 mil bu vs 893 last year. Also this week, Informa lowered their estimate of World 2020 wheat crop 8 mmt to near 760 versus 764 last year. They lower EU crop 5 mmt to 143. They also lowered India crop 6 mmt to 104. They raised the Russia crop 4 mmt to 82. Next week USDA will issue new US and World supply and demand numbers. USDA is not expected to make big changes to either the US or World numbers. For 2020/21, most could see a lower US crop and lower US carryout. This suggest US weather will be key to prices.

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2020-04-03T20:50:27+00:00 April 3rd, 2020|