February 11 Afternoon Comments


Soybeans traded higher. Overnight prices continued to trade lower on follow through long liquidation. There was also concern that Conab was going to increase their estimate of Brazil soybean crop. Conab estimated the crop at 133.8 mmt versus 133.7 previous And USDA 133.0. Rains in Brazil has slowed harvest. There is 13 mmt of soybean vessels to be loaded with only 500 mt loaded in Feb. Argentina weather is dry. Argentina is not imposing an export tax. Weekly US soybean export sales were near 804 mt. Total commit is near 59.4 mmt versus 32.8 last year. USDA goal is 61.2 vs 45.7 last year. Most analyst estimate final exports near 63.3. Additional total soybean demand could eventually drop US carryout to closer to 45 mil bu. China commit is near 35.8 mmt with 3.0 in unknown. Some feel soybean will be more range bound until more is known about South America crops, China demand and US 2021 crop.


Corn futures traded higher. Some feel that the extreme selloff in corn futures after the USDA report had reached value overnight near 5.23 CK. Some feel this triggered new consumer buying, Others feel that weak longs may have exited the market which may have given it new support. Conab estimates the Brazil corn crop near 105.4 mmt versus 102.3 previous and USDA 109.0. Some feel USDA eventually will have to increase China corn imports, lower South America exports and increase US exports. US export commit to date would suggest final exports could increase 200-300 mil bu from USDA guess. Final US domestic use could also be 100 mil bu above USDA guess. Weekly US corn export sales were near 1,400 mt. Total commit is near 57.5 mmt versus 23.7 last year. USDA goal is 66.0 mmt vs 45.1 ly. Most analyst estimate final exports near 72.0. China commit is near 17.7 mmt with 8.1 in unknown.


Wheat futures traded lower. Fact that Russia prices continue to trend lower offers resistance. Russia wheat export policy is a big unknown. Some feel export taxes will slow exports and could drop domestic prices. That could be the goal of the policy. Still there are no Russia wheat export prices after May. Current wheat prices have little 2021 weather premium built in. Some weather watchers hint that US spring could be normal which could help the outlook for US HRW and SRW crop. There is some concern that weather could be drier in US north plains and west Canada prairie. NOAA today suggested La Nina could be peaking. This could also help US winter wheat crop. Weekly US wheat sales were near 591 mt versus 643 last week. Total commit is near 23.0 mmt versus 21.9 last year. USDA goal is 26.8 vs 26.2 lt.

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2021-02-11T20:22:39+00:00 February 11th, 2021|