February 19 Afternoon Comments


Soybeans traded higher led by new crop. Lower than expected USDA Ag Forum estimated of US 2021/22 soybean carryout despite estimating near record acres and yield offered support. Managed funds were also net buyers on concern over South America soybean crops. USDA est US 2021 soybean acres near 90.0 versus 83.1 last year. US 2021 soybean crop is near 4,525 mil bu versus 4,135 last year. US 2021/22 carryout at 145. Some feel US 2020/21 carryout could be lower than 120. This puts a lot of pressure on a normal US 2021 crop. US weekly soybean export sales were near 456 mt. Total commit is near 59.8 mmt vs 33.3 last year. USDA goal is 61.2 versus 45.7. China exports are near 33.9 mmt. They have total commit near 35.8. There is 3.0 in unknown.


Corn futures closed mixed. CK was down 7 cents. CZ was up 1 cent. March Option expiration and slow liquidation of large open interest may have weighed on nearby futures. There was talk of Managed funds buying corn and soybeans due to concern over South America weather. North Brazil rains could slow corn planting there. Dry weather across south Brazil and most of Argentina could stress crops there. USDA est US 2021 corn acres near 92.0 versus 90.8 last year. USDA 2021 yield is near 179.5 versus 172.0 last year. US 2021 corn crop is near 15,150 mil bu versus 14,182 last year. US 2021/22 ethanol use is est near 5,200 vs 4,950 and exports 2,650 vs 2,600. That leaves a carryout at 1,552. Some feel US 2020/21 carryout could even be lower than 1,502. This puts a lot of pressure on a normal US 2021 crop. US weekly corn export sales were near 999 mt. Total commit is near 58.5 mmt vs 25.0 last year. USDA goal is 66.0 versus 45.1. China total commit near 17.7. There is 7.9 in unknown.  There was talk China may have bought US June-July PNW corn this week. Ukraine has shipped 11 mt corn. USDA est exports near 24 mmt vs 29 ly. Of the total China is 4 mmt.


Wheat futures traded lower. Over the last 6 weeks, nearby Chicago wheat has traded in a 6.24-6.93 range. This weeks range was 6.49-6.69. Concern about US cold weather offered support. Liquidation of March options may have weighed on futures today. Nearby KC 6 week range was 6.04-6.60. This week 6.27-6.95. USDA est US 2021 wheat acres near 45.0 versus 44.3 last year. US 2021 wheat crop is near 1,827 mil bu versus 1,826 last year. US total 2021/22 use is est near 2,095 vs 2,138 with exports at 925 vs 985. That leaves a carryout at 698. This puts a lot of pressure on a normal World 2021 crop. Some were looking for higher acres. USDA may have factored in US spring farmers switching acres to either corn or soybeans. US weekly wheat export sales were near 399 mt. Total commit is near 23.4 mmt vs 22.2 last year. USDA goal is 26.8 versus 26.2 ly. There was talk that there are no new crop Russia wheat export prices. Last year, Russia exported 10-12 mmt of wheat July-Sep.

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2021-02-19T22:59:56+00:00 February 19th, 2021|