Mar 4 Afternoon Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,


Soybeans traded a wide range. Soybean futures rallied after the weekly US soybean export sales report on talk of increase China buying Brazil soybeans. Tuesdays rally was linked in part to China pricing Brazil shipments. China soybean futures continue to score new highs. China Soyoil and Malaysian palmoil futures are also making new highs. Talk Biden may increase soyoil use for jet fuel may have also triggered new soyoil futures buying. One commercial US crusher reported increase crush capacity for increase soyoil use. Weekly US soybean sales were near 334 mt. Total commit is near 60.1 mmt vs 34.0 last year. China shipments are near 34.4 mmt with 35.7 mmt total commit and there is 2.3 mmt in unknown. USDA US soybean export goal is 61.2 mmt vs 45.7 last year.


Corn futures closed lower. Some post US weekly corn export sales buying supported prices to near session highs. Higher US dollar and lower US stocks may have triggered long liquidation into the close. Seasonal drop is new US corn export sales may have weighed on CN-CZ spread. This week some analyst suggested nearby corn longs move to CZ. Increase South America harvest pressure and approaching US spring planting season could offer resistance. Weekly US corn sales were near 115 mt. Total commit is near 59.1 mmt versus 26.6 last year. China shipments are near 7.0 mmt with 18.7 mmt total commit and there is 5.8 mmt in unknown. USDA US corn export goal is 66.0 mmt vs 45.1 last year. Our US March weather forecast is warm and wet. April forecast is warm with normal rains. By the end of April US 2021 corn crop should be planted. Early guesses for US 2021 corn planted acres is near 93.0-94.0 million. That could produce a crop near 15,330-15,575 mil bu. If demand is near 15,200 US 2021/22 carryout could be 1,210-1,500. Trade estimates US 2020/21 corn carryout near 1,470 mil bu vs USDA 1,502. Some private estimates are as low as 1,100. World corn stocks are est near 284.1 mmt versus USDA 286.5. Trade est Brazil corn near 108.3 mmt versus USDA 109.0 and Argentina near 47.0 mmt versus USDA 47.5.


Wheat futures traded lower. Early rally in corn futures helped push Wheat higher. Rally in US Dollar and lower US stocks may have helped erase early gains into the close. WK closed near 6.51 with a range 6.47-6.62. KWK closed near 6.21. Range was 6.20-6.32. MWK closed near 6.43. Range was 6.39-6.49. Weekly US wheat sales were near 219 mt. Total commit is near 23.8 mmt vs 23.1 last year. USDA US wheat export goal is 26.8 mmt vs 26.2 last year. US is not competitive to N Africa and Mideast buyers. Still, lack of clarity in future Russia exports and slower EU exports helps support futures. US weather maps hint of rains for parts of US HRW wheat growing areas. Our March winter wheat weather forecast calls for warm temps and normal rains in the east part of HRW and most of SRW areas. April weather could see more of the same. Trade est US 2020/21 wheat carryout near 839 mil bu vs USDA 836. World wheat end stocks are est near 304.3 mmt  vs USDA 304.2.

                                                   Chicago May wheat futures contract

2021-03-04T21:06:03+00:00 March 4th, 2021|