APR 30 AFTERNOON AG COMMENTARY

by Steve Freed,

SOYBEANS

Soybean traded higher on talk of higher US basis and tight US 2020/21 supplies. This offset talk this week that US soybean, soymeal And soyoil prices were too high and normal US summer weather

Could weigh on prices. There were no soybean deliveries. There were 695 soyoil and 9 soymeal deliveries. 48 pct of US Midwest soils are dry. Mid May rains should help central and east crops

But may not be enough in west. USDA est US 2020/21 soybean Crush near 2,190 mil bu vs 2,165 last year. Talk of higher soyoil demand for jet fuels could suggest US 2021/22 soybean crush may need to be near 2,450 mil bu. This would suggest soybean futures may need to rally enough for farmers to add 4-5 million 2021 soybean acres. Palmoil futures were lower on concern Increase in India virus cases would lower demand. 33 pct of US 2021 soybean crop should be planted.

CORN

Corn futures traded higher. Talk that China will take all of US unshipped open corn sales offered support and offset talk that US prices were too high and Argentina corn was being exported to US. There were rumors that one China Official reported that their corn stocks were low. In addition, US domestic

Corn processors were paying up to secure corn. Some as much as +60/+80 CN. All of this new news helped CN trade up the daily limit. Some feel there may be no CN top over CZ spread to force China to roll sales forward. They may not want to compete in the fall with large soybean export program.

USDA estimates US corn exports near 2,675 mil bu. This does not include 160 mil bu of China corn that they are expecting to be rolled forward. Brazil lowered their corn crop to 104 mmt from USDA 109. Some are below 100 mmt. There is talk that Brazil may have to import corn from Argentina through July and that they may not have enough corn for export Aug-Jan. This could add 400 mil bu to US 2021/22 export demand. 48 pct of US Midwest soils are dry. Mid May rains should help central and east crops but may not be enough in west. 45-48 pct of US corn crop should be planted.

                                             Nearby Monthly Corn Futures Chart

CQG Chart

WHEAT

Wheat futures managed small gains. MKN rallied on continued concern about dry weather across most of US north plains and Canada prairies. There is also new concern about dryness in west US south Plains. Latest weather updates suggest less than thought rains across spout Europe. Russia and Ukraine weather looks normal for now but there are reports of replanting Russia acres. Matif May Wheat futures continue strong into expiration due to lower supplies. US HRW export prices are $40 dollars over Russia and $30 dollars over Germany and Baltic. Some look for USDA to drop US winter wheat crop ratings again next week.  For now, Wheat futures need to follow corn to make sure no additional US/Word wheat is fed, USDA est World wheat feeding a record 156 mmt vs 139 last year and China a record 40 mmt vs 19 last year.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2021-04-30T20:23:36+00:00 April 30th, 2021|