JULY 19 AFTERNOON AG COMMENTARY

by Steve Freed

SOYBEANS

SU had an outside day and closed below Fridays close. This is a negative technical pattern early gains overnight linked to concern about US 2021 crop due to dryness across the NW Midwest. Concern about increase in US Covid cases reversed the trade lower. Funds may also be unwilling to buy soybeans without new China buying and favorable crop outlook over 80 pct of the US crop. Trade est US crop 60 pct G/E vs 59 lw. Weekly US soybean exports were near 5 mil bu vs 16 last year. Season to date exports are near 2,123 mil bu vs 1,408 last year. USDA WOB goal is 2,270 vs 1,679 last year. Trade will be watching new crop US export demand. USDA est US 21/22 soybean carryout is est near 120 mil bu vs USDA WOB July est of 155.

CORN

Corn futures ended unchanged. Early gains due to concern over US 2021 corn crop helped CU test 5.71 and CZ 5.67 overnight. CU traded back below the 20 day moving average after US stocks and crude oil traded sharply lower. Lower equity and energy market linked to concern that US economic recovery could be stalled by increase in cases of the Delta variant of the Covid virus. New strain appears to infect unvaccinated people. CU low was near the 100 day level of support. New resistance is now the 50 day near 5.79. Corn was supported by dry weather forecast for the Dakotas and MN which account for 20 pct of US corn acres. Trade est US crop 66 pct G/E vs 65 last week. Drop in South America corn export supplies should increase demand for US corn exports and also lower US carryout. Dalian corn futures were lower. Weekly US corn exports were near 39 mil bu vs 48 last year. Season to date exports are near 2,368 mil bu vs 1,437 last year. USDA WOB goal is 2,850 vs 1,777 last year. Some could see final US 21/22 corn demand 200-400 mil bu above USDA. This could drop US 21/22 corn carryout from USDA WOB July est of 1,432 mil bu to 925.

WHEAT Wheat futures traded higher but off session higher. Dry US north plains, PNW and Canada prairies offered support. Dry Russia spring wheat area also offered support. Wet EU weather also raised concern about quality there and has slowed export loadings.  WU range was 6.94-7.09. KWU range was 6.49-6.68. MWU range was 9.04- 9.44. Weekly US wheat exports were near 18 mil bu vs 18 last year. Season to date exports are near 103 mil bu vs 132 last year. USDA WOB goal is 2,270 vs 1,679 last year. Trade will be watching new crop US export demand. Minn spring wheat futures trade higher. Trade est US HRS crop rating 15 pct G/E vs 16 last week. Forecasts of near record low World exporters stocks to use ratio has some forecasting fall Chicago wheat futures to test 7.20-7.50 and Dec-Feb prices testing 7.50-8.00. Trade est US winter wheat harvest near 72 pct versus 59 last week.

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2021-07-19T19:56:15+00:00 July 19th, 2021|