JULY 20 AFTERNOON AG COMMENTARY

by Steve Freed

SOYBEANS

Soybean traded higher in a wide range and off session high. SU tested 14.14 on a US NW Midwest 2 week hot and dry forecast. There are also chances that in August, the ridge could expand to the east. Yesterdays noon weather map reduced rains next week in Iowa. Todays were wetter and cooler. Flip a coin. SU Is also forming a large flag technical formation. Support is near 13.51 with resistance near 14.24. Some look for a potential big move once there is a breakout from the formation. USDA NASS rated the US 2021 soybean crop 60 pct G/E vs 59 last week and 69 last year. Best crops are in LA, KY, TN, MS, and NE. Lowest rated crops are in MN, ND and SD. Warm and dry LH July and FH August could stress soybean in parts of IA, MN and the Dakotas.

CORN

Corn futures traded higher. Forecast of dry and warm 2 week NW Midwest weather forecast helped CU test 5.76. Range was 5.57-5.76. CZ tested 5.70. CU remains stuck between 100 day moving average support near 5.51 and 50 day moving average resistance near 5.77. NW corn belt bulls feel market should trade higher to reflect their lower yield outlook. East and south bears are hoping for higher prices before harvest to sell their potentially big crop. Farmer not selling corn but end user appears to be covered for now. Collapse of CU-CZ spread could suggest domestic and export market covered for now. Funds are unwilling to increase corn longs until China buys corn or USDA drops yields. USDA NASS rated the US 2021 corn crop 65 pct G/E vs 65 last week and 69 last year. Best crops are in TN, NE, WI, OH, MI and IN. Lowest rated crops are in MN, ND and SD. Some est IA 2021 corn yield near 195 vs 178 ly, NE 188 vs 171 ly and OH 188 vs 171 ly. Lowest yields are in MN 175 vs 192 ly, ND 134 vs 139 ly and SD 145 vs 162 ly. This would suggest a US yield near 176 vs 172 ly. This would suggest a US 2021/22 corn carryout closer to 930 vs WOB 1,432. Weekly US ethanol production should be near last week with a slight Increase in end stocks. Democrats in Congress are trying to write a bill to end biofuel Mandates. Mandates are up to EPA. WH still in favor of green fuels.

WHEAT

Wheat futures traded mixed. WU ended near 7.00. Range was 6.98-7.18. KWU ended near 6.61. Range was 6.52-6.74. NASS est that 73 pct of US WW crop was harvested. KS 96, MO 96, WA 30, OR 39. This could suggest Less hedge pressure. EU wheat harvest only 4 pct vs 42 last year. Some Concern about late harvest and loading exports but also quality of crop. Russia spring wheat areas remain dry. Russia farmer not selling. Russia Bread markers are talking about raising prices. Kazakhstan talking about banning grain and feedstuff exports due to dry weather. NASS rated the US spring wheat crop 11 pct G/E vs 16 last week and 69 last year. This is only 1 pct above the record low in 1988.Rain in NE ND triggered selling in MWU but most feel these rains are little too late to help. Next week is the Annual ND crop tour. They will let us know how bad is bad if crop is not zero out,  cut for hay or harvested.

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2021-07-20T19:48:07+00:00 July 20th, 2021|