JULY 30 AFTERNOON AG COMMENTARY

by SteveFreed

SOYBEANS

Soybeans traded lower. Fact USDA lowered US soybean crops rating helped SU test 13.92 early in the week. SU trade today back near 13.50. One crop scout estimated that 34 percent of US soybean crop will average trend yield, 34 pct above and 32 below. He is using a 50 bpa US yield vs USDA 50.8. Warm and dry week could drop next weeks ratings another 1-2 pct. The ridge weakened allowing for needed rains in SD, SW MN and NW IA. US soybean export commit is near 62 mmt cs 46 last year, USDA goal is 62 mmt vs 45 ly. US June soybean Crush is est near 162 mil bu vs 177 last year. End of June soyoil stocks are est near 1,994 mil lbs vs 2,271 last year. China has been an active buyer of domestic soymeal this week. This could increase their demand for new crop US soybeans. Brazil appears to be close to being sold out until new crop. US Midwest 6-15 day forecast is warm and dry west and normal east. USDA est World soybean use near a record 369 mmt and 21/22 near 380 mmt. 21/22 Brazil soybean crop is est near 144 mmt vs 137 this year and Argentina 52 vs 46.

CORN

Corn futures ended lower. CU ended near 5.47. At the beginning of the week, CU tested 5.64 after USDA dropped their weekly corn crop rating. CU rejected 5.55 resistance today. Some feel end users need coverage but are waiting for a bearish report to add coverage. US farmer is done selling corn unless CZ test 5.80 or higher. One crop scout estimated that 37 percent of US corn crop will average trend yield, 36 pct above and 27 below. He is using a 175 bpa US yield vs USDA 179.5. Warm and dry week could drop next weeks ratings another 1-2 pct. The ridge weakened today allowing for needed rains in SD, SW MN and NW IA.US 6-15 day forecast calls for above normal temps west and normal east. Rains are expected to be below normal west and normal east. US corn export commit is near 69 mmt vs 43 last year. USDA goal is 72 vd 45 ly. USDA est World 20/21 trade near a record 183 mmt with Brazil crop 93 and exports 35.5. Some hear crop closer to 77 and Brazil importing corn from Argentina. USDA also est World 21/22 trade to increase to another record 199 mmt with US exports near 63, Brazil 43 and Ukraine 30. China announced a temporary suspension of fertilizer export to insure domestic supplies.  Russia also under investigation for an anti-dumping. All this could raise US famers 2022 cost.

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended lower. WU ended down 1 cent and near 7.03. Range was 6.95 to 7.11. KWU ended down 1 cent and near 6.72. Range was 6.64 to 6.79. MWU ended down 13 cents and near 9.04. MWU range was 8.99 to 9.17. WU rallied this week from a low near 6.65 to todays high on concern over Canada, Russia and US crops. KWU rallied from a low near 6,31 to todays high at 6.79.  MWU rallied from a low near 8.70 to Thursdays high near 9.28. Futures were supported by field reports from ND of lower wheat yields. Prices have retreated on talk that despite the crop is smaller that quality is good with high protein and no shriveled kernels. US wheat export commit is near 2.7 mmt vs 3.8 last year. USDA goal is 23.8 vs 27.0 ly. USDA est total World trade near 204 mmt vs 200 last year. Russia 40 vs 38, EU 34 vs 30, Austrália 20 vs 23, Canada 23 vs 27. Some feel current Canada exports could fall to 13 mmt, Russia crop could drop to 77 mmt  vs USDA 85.

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2021-07-30T20:16:51+00:00 July 30th, 2021|