by Steve Freed
Soybean ended slightly lower. SF range was 12.63-12.79. BOZ range was 58.41-60.12. Rally in Crude helped soyoil. Liquidation of long soymeal short soyoil spread weighed on soymeal futures. SMZ range was 362-370. Argentina and S Brazil showers offers resistance. Matif and Canada canola futures made new highs on talk of lower Canada supplies. Some estimate that China may now be covered for soybean through December. Brazil could have soybean for export as early as January. US soybean exports are near 667 mil bu or down 27 pct from last year. SF is between 12.50 support and 13.00 resistance. Bulls need a South America weather problem to push above resistance.
Corn futures ended marginally higher. Managed funds continue to be net buyers of corn futures. Some feel they could add to positions on talk of lower US 2022 supply and tight World 2021 supplies. Domestic US corn basis is firm as US harvest ends and ethanol margins remain positive. Weekly ethanol production should be near last week with a small drop in stocks. Some feel US corn demand for ethanol could be up 100 mil bu from USDA guess. US corn exports remain below early estimates. Most analyst estimate US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,290 mil bu vs USDA 1,493. Matif corn futures made new highs on tight EU corn supplies. China continues to be an active importer of feedgrains. Now a net buyer of Australia feed wheat. Bulls need a South America weather problem to push above resistance. Increase Argentina and Ukraine corn supply and exports limits the upside in futures for now. US corn exports are near 229 mil bi or down 18 pct from last year. Fact US and EU wheat futures continue to trend higher offers support to corn.
Wheat futures ended higher. Talk of higher EU and Black Sea futures offered support. Fact World wheat import demand could increase from USDA last guess and crop could drop from USDA estimate supports World prices. East Australia rains has pushed Australia milling quality wheat fob prices higher. Record low World exporters stocks to use ratio and higher Russia prices is also supportive. Jan Russia wheat prices is up to $373 and implies export tax near $120. Either World wheat prices will need to rally to slow demand or higher Russia wheat prices could increase US exports. USDA dropped US 2022 winter wheat crop rating to 44 Pct G/E vs 46 last week. OK 55 vs 54, KS 61 vs 64, TX 22 vs 24, NE 63 vs 60, IL 85 vs 88, OH 58 vs 64, OR 36 vs 38 and WA 19 vs 27.
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