Soybeans traded below 12.25 SF support. Next support id 12.00 then Nov 9 low near 11.80. Concern about slower demand for US soybean exports and mostly favorable South America weather has limited new buying and triggered new selling. Brazil soybean plantings are done and some could see new crop Brazil soybeans for export in January. Brazil is also offering soymeal for export at a discount to US. Bulls are liquidating longs due to weak chart pattern and higher prices reducing food demand. US Oct soybean crush is est near 195.3 mil bu vs 196.6 ly. Soyoil stocks are est at 2,338
mil lbs vs 1,968 last month. Trade est Canada canola production near 12.8 mmt vs 19.5 last year.
Corn futures traded sharply lower. CH dropped below 5.72 support. Next support is near 5.55. Selling increased below support. Managed funds had been adding to net longs on talk of lower US 2022 supply and strong cash basis levels. This week’s US ethanol production could be up from last week with stocks slightly higher. Margins remain positive. Ethanol remains lowest price additive. Demand remain strong both export and domestic use. US corn export demand remains below pace to reach USDA goal. Trade estimates Canada corn crop near 14.1 mmt vs 13.5 last year. Oats 2.6 mmt vs 4.5 last year. Barley 6.9 mmt vs 10.7 last year. Some feel that CH support is near 5.50 but more is needed to know about severity of the Omicron virus and US Fed plan to help US economy vs slow inflation. Trade is worried about larger Argentina and Ukraine supplies reducing US corn export demand. CZ gained on CH on light deliveries and strong basis. Some feel US domestic corn users remain short and need corn for use. US farmer may be delaying new sales until next tax year.
Wheat futures traded sharply lower on fears the World demand could drop if new variant spreads and some new restrictions could be possible. Moderna CEO suggested their vaccine may not work against the new virus. US Fed Chairman suggested the spread of the virus could slow employment and economic activity. It could also increase uncertainty about inflation. Rain return to east Australia. This week Australia increase their crop estimate to a record 34 mmt with 5 mmt feed quality. US south plains remain dry with crop rated 44 pct G/E. Trade estimates Canada wheat crop at 21.2 mmt vs 35.2 last year. Spring wheat at 14.7 mmt vs 25.8 last year. KWH dropped below the 20 day moving average for the first time since October. Next support is 8.00 then 7.82.
Comments by Steve Freed
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