JANUARY 13 AFTERNOON AG COMMENTARY

by Steve Freed

SOYBEANS

Soybeans ended lower. SH ended near 13.76. High was 13.99. Funds turned sellers on lack of new bullish news and prospects for needed rains early next week across some of the dry areas of South America. Brazil Agroconsult lowered their estimate of the Brazil soybean crop to 134 mmt vs 144 previous and USDA 138. USDA kept US 2021/22 soybean exports at 2,050. Total US soybean export commit is down 24 pct from last year. USDA estimates exports will be down 10 pct. USDA dropped Argentina crop 3 mmt. Rosario Exchange today dropped the crop to 40 mmt vs USDA 46.5. Argentina ships 40 pct of World soymeal trade and 50 pct of soyoil. SH had an inside day. Some feel SH support is near 13.50. Initial resistance is now near 14.00.

CORN

March corn futures are back below 5.90. USDA report was considered neutral. USDA raised US crop 53 mil bu, raised ethanol 75 mil bu but lowered exports 75 mil bu. Net result, carryout of 1,540 mil bu vs 1,493 in Dec and 1,235 last year. USDA dropped Argentina .5 mmt and Brazil 3 mmt. Rosario estimated the Argentina corn crop at 48 mmt vs USDA 54. USDA raised Ukraine 2 mmt. USDA raised Ukraine exports 1 mmt. IGC lowered their estimate of World corn crop 5 mmt. Most of the drop was in South America. Argentina down 2 mmt and Brazil down 4 mmt. Weekly US corn sales were 457 mt. Total commit is down 9 pct from last year. USDA estimates exports down 12 pct. China commit is near 12 mmt. Some feel US will export 14 mmt to China vs 21 last year. China total imports are est at 27 mmt vs 30 last year. Of the total Ukraine is estimated near 12 mmt vs 8 ly. US is expected to ship a record 16 mmt to Mexico. US is also expected to ship a record 4 mmt to Canada. CH high was 5.99. CH tested 50 day moving average near 5.87. Support is now 5.80 then 5.60. Resistance is near 6.00.

WHEAT

Wheat futures are still on the defensive. USDA lowered US wheat imports 10 mil bu, lowered feed use 25 mil bu and exports 15 mil bu. Carryout of 628 is negative unless US 2022 weather is dry. USDA also estimated US 2022 winter wheat acres at 34.4 million vs 33.6 ly. HRW 23.8 vs 23.5, SRW 7.2 vs 6.5, white winter 3.5 vs 3.5. IGC raised World wheat crop 4 mmt. IGC raised Australia 3.5 mmt. WH ended near 7.47. High was 7.57. WH rejected 775. Next support is 7.34. KWH is near 7.58. High was 7.77. KWH rejected 7.77. Next key support is 7.50 then 7.24.  MWH is in freefall from Dec 30 high near 10.00. MWH ended near 8.93. High was 9.26. Market is oversold. Last key support is 8.78.

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2022-01-13T20:57:26+00:00 January 13th, 2022|