SOYBEANS

What a last 3 trading days. News of Russia invading Ukraine sent SK to 17.59. Concern that Russia would take over Ukraine quickly send SK down to the 20 day moving average near 15.79. SK ended today near 16.36. The US and its allies moved to block certain Russian banks access to the SWIFT payment system Russia produces 10% of global oil and supplies 40% of Europe’s gas. It is the world’s largest fertilizers exporter, top palladium and nickel producer, third largest exporter of coal and steel, and fifth-largest wood exporter. The bid to exclude from the trading system whole chunks of the world’s 11th largest economy and supplier of one-sixth of all commodities has no precedent in the globalized age. Weekly US soybean exports were near 27.0 mil bu versus 37.0 last year. Season the date exports are near 1,492 mil bu vs 1,914 last year. USDA goal is 2,050 vs 2,261 ly.

CORN

May corn ended the day up the daily limit. What a last 3 trading days. News of Russia invading Ukraine sent CK to 7.16. Concern that Russia would take over Ukraine quickly send CK down to near 6.51. CK ended today near 6.90. The synthetic market was near 6.96-6.98. The US and its allies moved to block certain Russian banks access to the SWIFT payment system. The bid to exclude from the trading system whole chunks of the world’s 11th largest economy and supplier of one-sixth of all commodities has no precedent in the globalized age. Russia continues to invade Ukraine. Ukraine continues to fight. Large Russia military force is heading for Ukraine capital. There is talk that Russia grain export ports are closed. There is also talk that Ukraine grain ports are mined and closed. Some open Black Sea grain sales are being washed out. There is also talk of some Ukraine corn sales being switched to US. Peace talks ended with no resolution. Weekly US corn exports were near 60.2 mil bu versus 80.5 last year. Season to date exports are near 913 mil bu vs 1,033 last year. USDA goal is 2,425 vs 2,753 ly. Trade estimates US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,250 versus USDA 1,540. Some doubt Ukraine will ship 590 mil bu of corn and South America crops could be down 510 mil bu from USDA.

WHEAT

Volatility continues to increase in wheat. On Friday, WK had a wide range from 8.59 to 9.60. WK is near 9.34. KWK had a range of 8.91 to 9.81. KWK is near 9.54. MWK range was 9.60 to 10.62. MWK tested todays low at the 20 day moving average near 9.70 and ended near 9.94. Russia continues to invade Ukraine. Ukraine continues to fight. Large Russia military force is heading for Ukraine capital. There is talk that Russia grain export ports are closed. There is also talk that Ukraine grain ports are mined and closed. Some open Black Sea grain sales are being washed out. Weekly US wheat exports were near 15.0 mil bu versus 12.6 last year. Season to date exports are near 569 mil bu vs 666 last year. USDA goal is 810 vs 992 ly. Trade estimates US 2021/22 wheat carryout at USDA 648. Some feel total World wheat trade could be down 440 mil bu from USDA due to lower Russia and EU exports.

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