by Steve Freed
Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 600-1,050 mt old crop vs 1,232 last week and 800-1,300 mt new crop vs 866 last week. USDA estimates South America soybean crop at 185 mmt. Some feel final crop could be down 20 mmt. Where will the World find 20 mmt of loss South America soybeans? StoneX estimated Brazil crop at 121 mmt vs USDA 134.USDA announced 264 mt US soybeans to unknown and 266 mt of US soybeans to China. US stocks are higher on what many feel was more dovish comments by US Fed Chairman Powell. Some feel Ukraine War may be more important than inflation which could reduce the number of times Fed raises rates. China has stepped in and raised concern about Ukraine civilian deaths.
Corn futures ended mixed to lower. CK was near 7.25 with range of 7.11-7.47. CN is near 6.93. CU is near 6.27. CZ is near 6.27. CN23 is near 6.14. CZ23 is near 5.65. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 600-1,200 mt vs 1,041 last week. Today someone bought 9,000 CU 7.50-8.50 call spread for14 cents. USDA estimates US 2021/22 corn exports at 2,425 mil bu vs 2,743 last year. Some feel final exports could be closer to 2,650. Some estimate World 2021/22 corn trade near a record 182 mmt vs 175 last year. Of the total, US is 68.0 mmt vs 69.6, Argentina 38.0 vs 32.5 last year, Ukraine 32.5 vs 23.7 ly and Brazil 27.7 vs 30.9 ly. Some feel Ukraine still has 14-15 mmt or 600 mil bu of which 7 mmt to China. Some eel South America corn supply could be down 10 mmt or 400 mil bu. Where will the World get 24-25 mmt of corn exports or 1,000 mil bu? Some already see US corn exports up 225 from USDA estimate which suggest a carryout near 1,220. 600 additional US exports could bring down the carryout to 620 and might suggest nearby corn futures could trade over 8.50. EU feeders have requested Brussels to allow GMO corn to be fed. This could open the door for US imports.
Wheat futures need mixed to higher. WK ended up the 75 cents expanded limit and near 10.59. Synthetic market was trading near 10.65. WN closed up 74 cents and near 10.41. WZ closed done 40 cents and near 8.92. Many have called and e mail about what the h— is going on with the Chicago July-Dec wheat spread. Best answer is that short wheat and long soybean spread has been popular and many are trying to exit that spread. There is also concern that 12-15 mmt of Black Sea and 5 mmt of EU wheat exports may not be shipped as long as the War drags on. On the other hand many fear that the War may not last too much longer. Once the War is over, Black Sea wheat exports could resume. Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 200-650 mt vs 517 last week. Where will the World find 12-14 mmt or 440-515 mil bu of Black Sea wheat? US south plains wheat weather is Warm and dry. KWN ending up he 75 cents limit may still not be trading a US dry spring. Expect volatile trade. Reopening Black Sea Wheat exports could trigger profit talking to 8.50. Dry US weather could then send KWN to 14.00.
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