by Steve Freed

SOYBEANS

Volatility continues in the grains. Soybean futures had another wild ride today. SK ended near 16.88 with a range of 16.49 to 17.06. USDA March report tomorrow. Trade estimates US 2021/22 soybean carryout at 278 mil bu vs USDA 325. USDA announced 132 mt new crop US soybeans to China and 126 mt US old crop soybeans to unknown. Talk of Biden offering waivers for biofuel had weighed on soyoil futures. Matif and Canada rapeseed prices were sharply higher. US soybean exports are 22 pct lower than last year. Brazil soybean harvest near 50 pct. Brazil and Argentina rains should be stabilizing the crops. China Jan-Feb soybean exports were up 4 pct from last year. Season to date exports are down 7 pct from last year versus USDA estimate of down 3 pct. Some want to buy soyoil futures post USDA report.

CORN

Corn futures ended higher. CK ended near 7.53. Range was 7.28 to 7.60. There may have been some long liquidation before tomorrows USDA report. About an hour before the CBOT close, tweets and emails began circulating saying Putin had signed a ban on exports of raw materials (with no definition as to which), to last through Dec 31 2022. There was no confirmation but market reaction was immediate. Sources inside Russia report that major cities are limiting the sales in shops of prime necessities, notably flour and vegoils. Prices are soaring due to the Ruble drop and ordinary Russians are now struggling to afford basic food/necessities. USDA March report tomorrow. Trade estimates US 2021/22 corn carryout at 1,479 mil bu vs USDA 1,540. Most are closer to 1,200 due to higher demand especially exports. Corn followed lower wheat trade today until the Russian rumor reversed trade corn may also be undervalued if US corn export demand increases due to lower South America crop and timing of resumption of Black Sea grain exports. There is talk of heavy Brazil corn sales but some feel the sales could be option origin. US commercials are looking for a big US summer corn export program.

Some want to buy corn futures post USDA report.

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended lower but off limit down low. French news agency reported that Ukraine no longer desires to be a NATO member. This could help peace negotiations. Trade is reacted to the news with sharply lower wheat prices. Trade is waiting for official confirmation. Some feel wheat futures were due for a correction given how fast and how high prices have rallied. About an hour before the CBOT close, tweets and emails began circulating saying Putin had signed a ban on exports of raw materials (with no definition as to which), to last through Dec 31 2022. There was no confirmation but market reaction was immediate. Sources inside Russia report that major cities are limiting the sales in shops of prime necessities, notably flour and vegoils. Prices are soaring due to the Ruble drop and ordinary Russians are now struggling to afford basic food/necessities. USDA March report tomorrow. Trade estimates US 2021/22 wheat carryout at 628 mil bu vs USDA 648. Trade estimates World wheat end stocks near 277.6 vs USDA 278.2. USDA announced 193 mt US HRS wheat to Philippines. Some want to buy wheat futures post USDA report.

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