by Steve Freed
Soybeans ended higher on talk of lower South America supply and higher US soybean demand. Soymeal futures made new high. Weekly US soybean export sales were near 81 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,924 mil bu vs 2,217 last year commit is down 13 pct from last year. USDA goal is 2,090 vs 2,261 last year or down 8 pct. New crop sales were 33 mil bu. Total new crop commit is a record 281 mil bu. Since December, USDA has dropped the South America soybean crop 350 mil bu. At the same time, USDA has raised soybean exports only 40 mil bu and dropped US soybean carryout only 55 mil bu. Some feel final exports could be closer to 2,170 mil bu which would suggest a carryout closer to 205 mil bu. This could suggest higher soybean futures. Same group estimates US 2022 soybean acres near 89.0, crop of 4,540, 2,300 crush, 2,300 exports and a US 2022/23 soybean carryout near 75 mil bu vs USDA Outlook 305. CONAB estimated the Brazil soybean crop at 122.7 vs USDA 127.
Corn futures ended sharply higher. Speculative traders added to longs post USDA report on talk of lower Ukraine corn exports and lower South America supply. USDA decided to raise World corn crop 1 mmt, drop imports 3 mmt, raise feed use 2 mmt (mostly in Ukraine?) lower exports 3 mmt and carryout 1 mmt. In the real World that Ukraine may not ship 15 mmt of corn this year. There also concern about planting of the Ukraine corn crop due to many factors beside the War including Farm Managers not knowing where workers are. Weekly US corn export sales were near 84 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,976 mil bu vs 2,217 last year commit is down 13 pct from last year. USDA goal is 2,500 vs 2,753 last year or down 9 pct. Some feel final exports could be closer to 2,800 mil bu which would suggest a carryout closer to 1.070 mil bu vs USDA 1,440. This could suggest higher corn futures. Same group estimates US 2022 scorn acres near 91.5, crop of 14,950, 5,550 feed, 5,300 ethanol use, 2,950 exports and a US 2022/23 corn carryout near 805 mil bu.
Wheat futures ended sharply lower. WK ended down 115 cents and near 10.85. Session high was 12.21. KWK ended down 48 cents and near 10.65. Session high was 11.51. MWK ended down 27 cents and near 10.56. Session high was 11.20. Speculative traders were sellers on talk of lower World demand and fact USDA did not lower World stocks. USDA increased World wheat production 3 mmt, mostly Australia, dropped imports 3 mmt, mostly EU and N Africa, increased feed use 2 mmt, mostly Ukraine? Australia and SE Asia, dropped exports 3.5 mmt, Australia up 2 mmt, India up 1.5 mmt, Russia down 3 mmt and Ukraine down 4 mmt. Some feel that Russia, Ukraine and EU wheat exports could drop a total of 15 mmt. This would tighten World exporters stocks to use ratio and turn futures higher. USDA also increases World wheat end stocks 2 mmt. Some see US 2022 wheat acres near 48.0, crop 1,915, exports 925 and carryout near 515. World Weather could see US south plains dry ridge developing mid April. Some Are forecasting US 2022/23 HRW carryout below 200 mil bu vs 351 this year.
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