by Steve Freed

SOYBEANS

May soybeans ended lower. SK ended near 16.70 with a range of 16.61 to 16.97. Failure to close over 17.00 offers resistance. Soymeal gained on soyoil after Argentina stopped soymeal export licenses. On March 9, USDA estimated Argentina soymeal trade near 28.0 mmt vs 28.3 ly. Argentina ist he Worlds largest soymeal exporter. USDA estimated Argentina soybean crop at 43.5 mmt vs 46.2 ly. Some are as low as 39.0. Lower energy trade could be weighing on soyoil. May soybean crush margin tested new high near 221 cents. Most commodities are lower on concern higher China covid cases could slow China commodity demand. Drop in South America 2022 soybean crop could be positive to soybean futures. Weekly US exports were 28 mil bu vs 20 ly. Season to date exports are 1,548 mil bu vs 1,959 ly. Key USDA March 31 acreage and stocks report will be next USDA report.

CORN

Corn futures ended lower. CK ended near 7.48 with a range of 7.40-to 7.67. CK tested the high on concern that ongoing Ukraine War could reduce Ukraine 550 mil bu corn exports. Sharply lower energy prices may have weighed on corn prices. There was concern that increase China covid cases and slower economy could reduce their commodity imports. There was also talk that Russia asked China for military aid. This could increase tension between US and China. Talk that Russia may ban barley exports and Ukraine War could slow their corn exports is supportive. Long range US south plains dry weather forecast could supports corn futures. There is talk that Russia and Ukraine are in peace talks. An end to the Ukraine war could be bearish. Most commodities including corn are lower on concern higher China covid cases could slow China commodity demand. Drop in US 2022 corn crop and reduced Ukraine exports could be positive to corn futures. Weekly US exports were 45 mil bu vs 89 ly. Season to date exports are 1,020 mil bu vs 1,188 ly. USDA announced 159 mt US corn to Mexico. Some could see final US corn exports closer to 2,800 vs USDA 2,500.

WHEAT

Wheat futures ended mixed. WK ended near 10.96. Range was 10.64 to 11.48. KWK ended near 10.94. Range was 10.51 to 11.38. MWK ended near 10.67. Range was 10.44 to 11.05. Talk that Russia may ban wheat exports is supportive. Long range US south plains dry weather forecast also supports KC wheat. There is talk that Russia and Ukraine are in peace talks. An end to the Ukraine war could be bearish. Drop in US 2022 HRW crop and reduced Black Sea export could be positive to Wheat futures. Weekly US exports were 10 mil bu vs 26 ly. Season to date exports are 595 mil bu vs 712 ly. Most estimate EU, Russia and Ukraine July-Feb 15 wheat exports near 60.0 Mmt. USDA estimates Feb,15 to June 30 exports near 29.5. Others estimate exports closer to 16.5. USDA estimates those 3 countries will ship 89.5 mmt June-July 30. Others feel exports could be closer to 76.5 mmt. Could a 13.0 mmt drop impact prices?

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