by Steve Freed
Soybean futures ended lower. Soybean had rallied after China said they would support their economy. This raised hope that China might buy US soybeans. Dalian soybean and soyoil futures traded higher while soymeal traded lower. Spread of Covid in China has caused city wide lockdowns and raised concern about commodity imports. Some now fear that China could take less than 92 mmt of soybean imports. Brazil soybean fob values are above US and 125 cents above last year. Trade estimates US weekly soybean export sales near 900-1,800 mt versus 2,204 last week. SK is back near the 20 day moving average and remains in a broad 16.00-17.00 trading range. Increase volatility has dropped trade volume which could trigger wider price changes.
Corn futures ended sharply lower. Rumors that an Ukraine War ceasefire may happen soon offered strong overhead resistance. After a passionate speech to US Congress some fear that US will not agree to a Ukraine no fly zone. We will see if US gives needed military aid to Ukraine. Ukraine President is begging for help. The ceasefire could include not entering NATO and becoming a neutral state. They may also have to give up land that has been taken over by Russia. A ceasefire could open up Black Sea grain exports. Some though feel it could be weeks before grain could be shipped from Ukraine. Recent highs in CK were made of fear that Ukraine may not be able to ship 500 mil bu of corn of which 235 mil bu was to China. US responded to Ukraine request with $800 million Dollar of additional military and humanitarian aid. Trade estimates US weekly export sales near 700-1,400 mil bu versus 2,143 last week. Some even feel that sales less than 2.0 mmt might be bearish. There were rumors of Asian buyer buying 1.5 mmt 60 m il bu of US PNW corn today. Weekly US ethanol production was near last weeks pace but up 5 pct versus last year. Stocks were up 2 pct from last week and up 21 pct from last year. CK traded below Wednesdays low near 7.36. 20 day moving average support is near 7.14. Some feel increase demand could help support CK near 7.00.
Wheat futures ended down the daily prices limit. US Weather forecasters look for .75-1.50 inches of rain early next week across parts of the US south plains. Actual amounts and coverage will be key to prices. Volatility in wheat is extreme which is reducing trade volume and increase chances of wild price swings. Rumors of a Ukraine ceasefire offered resistance wheat futures. If War continues, where will buyers find 10 mmt Black Sea wheat? Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 250-600 mt. India may export 10 mmt wheat vs USDA estimate of 8.5. WK ended near 10.69. Session high was 11.59. WK traded below Wednesdays low of 10.88. 20 day moving average support is near 10.27. KWK ended near 10.72. Session high was 11.60. KWK traded below Wednesdays low of 10.90. 20 day moving average support is near 10.29. MWK ended near 10.50. Session high was 11.10. MWK traded below Wednesdays low of 10.59. 20 day moving average support is near 10.49.
The information conveyed by ADMIS or it’s affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity future contracts.