by Steve Freed
Soybeans traded higher after good weekly US export sales. SK had an inside day trading between 16.54 and 16.81. SMK traded down and below 476 support. Chart looks to be rolling over and could test 462. Soyoil gained more of the crush value. BOK had an outside day testing 72.94 before trading over 74.98. Weekly US soybean sales were 1.2 mmt. Total commit is near 53.6 mmt vs 60.5 last year. USDA goal is 56.9 vs 61.5 ly. China, Egypt and Taiwan were best buyers. New crop sales were 477 mt with China the main buyer. China soybean export commit is near 27.7 mmt and there is 4.1 in unknown. There has been talk that China may take less than 94 mmt due to Covid spread and slow economy. Fact China announced they will support the economy has now some looking for imports of 97 mmt. China has been an active buyer this week of 20-25 Brazil soybean cargoes. There is talk that Brazil could run out of export soybeans as early as September.
Corn futures traded higher. Volume remains low, 20,000 contracts rallied corn futures 20 cents when normally market would rally 3 cents. Increase volatility and wild swings in futures has lowered volume. CK had an inside day between 7.26 and 7.57. Crude oil was back over the 20 day moving average and 100.12. Crude is putting back a war premium. Weekly corn export sales were 1.8 mmt and higher than expected. Total commit is near 52.0 mmt vs 60.5 last year. USDA goal is 63.5 vs 69.9 ly. Some could see exports closer to 71.2. Colombia, Japan, S Korea, Mexico and Spain were best buyers. Mexico commit is near 14.3 mmt, China 12.1, Japan 8.1, Canada 3.5 and unknown 3.4. USDA has Ukraine exports near 27.5 mmt with some feeling they may not ship 15 mmt of which 6 is to China. USDA also has Argentina corn exports at 39.9. Early harvest Argentina corn yields are below expectations. Early Argentina corn is also be shipped to Brazil where domestic prices are record high. More concern today about Ukraine 2022 harvest. 70 pct of farmers diesel fuel comes from Russia and Belarus. If crops can’t get planted in war zone, corn crop could be down 36 pct and barley 48 pct. NOAA 30 and 90 day forecast of warm and dry weather across much of the plains and west Midwest also supported prices
Wheat futures ended higher. War off? War on? Today after Putin speech most feel there may be no ceasefire soon. Recent trade suggest a ceasefire would be bearish wheat futures. Forecast of rains in US south plains also weighed on futures. Our weather watcher feels 40 pct of the area will see an inch favoring the east. Warm and dry weather follows. NOAA 30 and 90 day forecast of warm and dry weather across much of the plains and west Midwest also supported prices. Some estimate that 52 pct of Ukraine wheat area is in war zone. 70 pct of farmers diesel fuel comes from Russia and Belarus. Some est Ukraine wheat crop near 27 mmt vs 33 last year. Worst case scenario 10 mmt. Weekly US wheat export sales totaled 471 mt. Old crop commit is near 18.7 mmt vs 24.5 ly. USDA goal is 21.7 mmt vs 27.0 last year. Chile, Colombia, Italy, Malaysia, Nigeria and Vietnam were buyers of a cargo apiece. USDA has Ukraine shipping 20 mmt of wheat, Russia 32 mmt and EU 37.5. Some feel those 3 have shipped 60 mmt from July to Mid Feb. USDA has them exporting 29.5 mmt the rest of the marketing year. Some feel exports could be only 16.5. Egypt announced their farmers have to sell 60 pct of their crop to the government. World Bank commented that 7 poor countries could run low on wheat supplies triggered more wheat futures buying
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