by Steve Freed
Soybeans ended slightly lower. Soymeal gained on soyoil. World financial Markets remain on edge given uncertainty over the Ukraine war. Peace talks continue. Russia continues attacks on Ukraine cities. This week, SK has been finding support near the 20 day moving average which today is near 16.58. Resistance is near 17.00. Fact that 2022 South America soybean crop has dropped due to dry weather suggest US soybean and soymeal demand could increase. Concern that global inflation could slow food and fuel demand offers resistance. Some feel China and Germany may already be in a recession. News this week China will support its economy helped Crude, copper and soybeans. NOAA 90 day weather forecast called for above normal temps across most of the US Midwest. Below normal rains across SD, NE, KS and west Delta. Above normal rains in WI, IL, IN, MI and OH.
Corn futures ended lower. Uncertainty over Ukraine War as reduced trade volume and limited new buying, This week, CK has been in a 7.26 to 7.67 range. 7.24 is 20 day moving average support. Corn is supported by talk of lower South America and potential lack of Ukraine corn exports. US Midwest rains may be offering resistance before US planting season. Pro Farmer farmer survey estimated US 2022 corn acres at 91.9 vs 93.4 last year and USDA Outlook estimate of 92.0. Combined US 2022 corn and soybean acres are estimated near 179.7 million versus 180.6 last year or down .9. High prices should increase acres. Total hay acres are near record low which reduces acres that could be switched to crops. Trade wants to see continued increase in new US corn export sales. This weeks were higher than expected with multiple countries buying, This could be the beginning of normal South America and Black Sea buyers could be switching to US. Talk that Ukraine farmers get 70 pct pf diesel fuel from Russia and Belarus raised concern if Ukraine will be able to plant the 2022 crops.
WK is down 37 cents and near 10.60. Range has been 10.55-11.06. KWK is down 24 cents and near 10.68. Range has been 10.55-10.97. MWK is down 20 cents and near 10.58. Range has been 10.50 to 10.87. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and near 103.This week, WK has been in a wide 10.55 to 11.50 range. 10.55 is 20 day moving average support. Wheat is supported by talk of lower Black Sea exports. US south plains rains may be offering resistance before US growing season. This week, NOAA 30 and 90 day weather forecast calls for below normal rains and above normal temps across the US HRW south plains. Ongoing and ever changing headlines concerning the Ukraine war keeps wheat futures volume low and trade choppy. Lack of Black Sea export has raised concern about wheat supply shortages in poor countries. Domestic Russia flour prices are record high. This week, Informa estimated World wheat crop at 788 mmt vs 780 ;ast year. China 136 vs 136 ly, EU 138 vs 138, India 111 vs 109, Canada 31 vs 21 and US 54 vs 44.
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