by Steve Freed
Soybeans ended higher. USDA announced 240 mt of US 2021/22 soybeans were sold to unknown. SK ended near 16.96. Session high was 17.20. Tech buying lifted SK over 17.00. Trade still trying to figure out how World buyers will offset lower South America 2022 soybean supplies. China Oct-Feb soybean imports were near 36.5 mmt vs 39.2 ly. Palmoil imports were 2.1 mmt vs 3.2 ly. Sunoil imports were near 373 mt vs 931 last year. Informa estimated US 2022 soybean acres near 88.6 vs 87.8 previous estimate and 87.2 last year. They estimated US 2022 soybean crop at 4,565 mil bu versus 4,520 previous and 4,435 last year. One group suggested US farmers sell additional 2021 crop due to their feeling that 2022 US April weather could be normal. Techies raised concern about large percent that managed longs are as total open interest and fact SK is 131 cents over the 50 day moving average.
Corn futures ended mixed. CK ended near 7.53. Session high was near 7.61. CZ tested new high and near 6.70. Lack of new US export corn business may have triggered some bear spreading, selling May and buying July and Dec. Some feel that US 2022/23 corn exports could 2,950 mil bu and 2021/22 2,800 vs USDA 2,500. Trade still trying to figure out how World buyers will offset lower Ukraine 2022 corn exports and lower Ukraine 2023 crop. Ukraine Ag Minister warned that Ukraine may plant only 7 million hectares spring crops versus 15 initially expected. China Oct-Feb corn imports are near 8.1 mmt vs 9.4 ly. Sorghum imports were 3.6 mmt vs 2.7 ly. Barley imports were near 5.0 mt vs 4.7 last year. Informa estimated US 2022 corn acres near 91.4 vs 91.5 previous estimate and 93.4 last year. They estimated US 2022 corn crop at 14,980 mil bu versus 14,999 previous and 15,115 last year. Informa estimated US 2022 sorghum acres near 6.6 vs 7.3 last year. One group suggested US farmers sell additional 2021 crop due to their feeling that 2022 US April weather could be normal. Techies raised concern about large percent that managed longs are as total open interest and fact CK is 84 cents over the 50 day moving average.
Volatility in wheat futures continues. WK ended near 11.18. Session high was 11.69. KWK ended near 11.19. Session high was 11.56. MWK ended near 10.95. Session high was 11.23. Trade still trying to figure out how World buyers will offset lower Black Sea 2022 wheat exports. Black Sea wheat export prices remain ill defined. EU wheat exports to date are running 5 mmt below USDA estimate. Iraq reported they only have 3 month’s worth of wheat supplies. China Oct-Feb wheat imports are near 4.3 mmt vs 4.7 ly. Informa estimated US 2022 wheat acres near 47.4 vs 48.1 previous estimate and 47.7 last year. Informa estimated US 2022 spring wheat acres near 11.3 vs 12.0 previous and 11.4 last year. They estimated US 2022 wheat crop at 1,962 mil bu versus 1,995 previous and 1,646 last year. One group suggested wheat futures could turn lower if US April south plains weather is normal. Our weather guy still feels a ridge of dry weather could develop over US south plains in April. Techies raised concern about the fact WK is 213 cents over the 50 day moving average.
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