Afternoon Grain Commentary 2018-08-29T18:26:48+00:00

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January 21 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed | ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Soybeans, soyoil, soymeal, corn, US stocks, US Dollar and gold traded lower on concerns about spread of SARS. Higher World wheat prices helped wheat.

SOYBEANS

Concern that the spread of SARS could lower the demand for protein and China demand for soybeans. March soybeans trade back below key moving average support levels. Weekly US soybean exports were near 44 mil bu vs 41 last year. Season to date exports are near 888 mil bu vs 718 last year. USDA goal is 1,775 mil bu vs 1,748 last year. Range of guesses for US 2020/21 soybean end stocks is 350-630. Bears look for US farmers to plan 85.0 million acres in 2020 versus 76.1 last year. Total supply could be near 4,720 mil bu. US 2020/21 crush cud be near 2,125 vs 2,105 this year. Exports need to increase to 1,825 to see a final carryout near 630 vs 475 this year. Key will be US crops and export demand especially to China. US farmers could plant the acres that they could not plant in 2019 or 10 million more acres. South America weather calls for too much rain in north Brazil and not enough in Argentina.

CORN

Corn futures traded lower on lack of confirmation of rumored China buying a few cargoes of US corn last week. Talk that SARS may have spread to a patient in state on Washington also weighed on corn, US stocks, US Dollar, crude and gold. Weekly US corn exports were near 13 mil bu vs 44 last year. Season to date exports are near 371 mil bu vs 811. Most now doubt China will be a big buyer of US corn until later in 2020. USDA export goal is 1,775 mil bu vs 2,065 last year. Without China some feel final exports could be closer to 1,600. Last Thursday the corn market dropped after China said they will buy US Ag goods when needed and at the right price. Friday the corn market rallied after word of China buying 5-7 US corn cargoes. Range of guesses for US 2020/21 corn end stocks 2,200-3,300. Bears feel US farmers will plant 96.0 mil corn acres in 2020 versus 89.7 last year. A yield near 178.0 could suggest total supply near 17,800 mil bu. Demand near 14,500 suggest a carryout near 3,300. Key will be planted acres and final yield.

WHEAT

Wheat futures rallied on talk of higher World wheat prices. Talk of slower Russia export pace, slower EU export pace and a chance China could buy US wheat in the recently signed Phase 1 trade Deal helped wheat futures trade higher. March Chicago wheat made new highs for the move and higher price since Sep, 2018. Weekly US wheat exports were near 16 mil bu vs 19 last year. Season to date exports are near 585 mil bu versus 515 last year. USDA export goal is 975 mil bu vs 936 last year. Range of guesses for US 2020/21 wheat end stocks is 700-960 mil bu. Key is size of US crop and export demand.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

January 21st, 2020|
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January 21 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed | ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Soybeans, soyoil, soymeal, corn, US stocks, US Dollar and gold traded lower on concerns about spread of SARS. Higher World wheat prices helped wheat.

SOYBEANS

Concern that the spread of SARS could lower the demand for protein and China demand for soybeans. March soybeans trade back below key moving average support levels. Weekly US soybean exports were near 44 mil bu vs 41 last year. Season to date exports are near 888 mil bu vs 718 last year. USDA goal is 1,775 mil bu vs 1,748 last year. Range of guesses for US 2020/21 soybean end stocks is 350-630. Bears look for US farmers to plan 85.0 million acres in 2020 versus 76.1 last year. Total supply could be near 4,720 mil bu. US 2020/21 crush cud be near 2,125 vs 2,105 this year. Exports need to increase to 1,825 to see a final carryout near 630 vs 475 this year. Key will be US crops and export demand especially to China. US farmers could plant the acres that they could not plant in 2019 or 10 million more acres. South America weather calls for too much rain in north Brazil and not enough in Argentina.

CORN

Corn futures traded lower on lack of confirmation of rumored China buying a few cargoes of US corn last week. Talk that SARS may have spread to a patient in state on Washington also weighed on corn, US stocks, US Dollar, crude and gold. Weekly US corn exports were near 13 mil bu vs 44 last year. Season to date exports are near 371 mil bu vs 811. Most now doubt China will be a big buyer of US corn until later in 2020. USDA export goal is 1,775 mil bu vs 2,065 last year. Without China some feel final exports could be closer to 1,600. Last Thursday the corn market dropped after China said they will buy US Ag goods when needed and at the right price. Friday the corn market rallied after word of China buying 5-7 US corn cargoes. Range of guesses for US 2020/21 corn end stocks 2,200-3,300. Bears feel US farmers will plant 96.0 mil corn acres in 2020 versus 89.7 last year. A yield near 178.0 could suggest total supply near 17,800 mil bu. Demand near 14,500 suggest a carryout near 3,300. Key will be planted acres and final yield.

WHEAT

Wheat futures rallied on talk of higher World wheat prices. Talk of slower Russia export pace, slower EU export pace and a chance China could buy US wheat in the recently signed Phase 1 trade Deal helped wheat futures trade higher. March Chicago wheat made new highs for the move and higher price since Sep, 2018. Weekly US wheat exports were near 16 mil bu vs 19 last year. Season to date exports are near 585 mil bu versus 515 last year. USDA export goal is 975 mil bu vs 936 last year. Range of guesses for US 2020/21 wheat end stocks is 700-960 mil bu. Key is size of US crop and export demand.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

January 21st, 2020|
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