Afternoon Grain Commentary 2018-08-29T18:26:48+00:00

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Feb 19 Afternoon Ag Commentary

by ADMIS Research Team

SOYBEANS

May soybeans were able to shake off early pressure and finish Wednesday’s trading session with a moderate gain. Bean oil made a sizable recovery from a 4 1/2 month low but closed in negative territory, while meal was able to grind out a modest gain on the day. A collapse in palm oil futures combined with a bearish tilt over the coronavirus demand issues helped to drive May soybeans all the way down to 894 ¾ early in the day. However, soybean oil failed to follow through after taking out the Feb 3rd low while meal continues to receive strong demand signals such as record crush pace out of the US and strong demand for expanding poultry production around the world. There are still no major weather issues in South America, although Argentine growing regions have a dry forecast through late next week. Traders continue to debate if China will aggressively buy US soybeans this year, and they await news from the USDA Outlook conference regarding planted acres estimates from the USDA for the coming year.

CORN

May corn opened slightly lower and traded sharply lower on the day early in Wednesday’s session, but remained inside of yesterday’s range and its recent consolidation zone through the close. Continued talk that China does not need feed grains at present, and continued decent weather down in South America helped to pressure. In addition, there was talk that the rally yesterday was overdone. Traders await news from the USDA Outlook conference regarding planted acres estimates from the USDA for the coming year. There is dry weather in the daily forecast for major Argentine growing areas through late next week, and that provided some measure of support for corn prices.

WHEAT

May wheat came under significant pressure into the midday and while it put together a sizable recovery late in the day, still finished up Wednesday’s inside-day trading session in negative territory. KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat also had inside-day ranges before closing with moderate losses. There has been talk that traders are second guessing the idea that China will be a strong buyer of US wheat. Tariffs on US wheat did come down from China but with huge stocks, China’s need for wheat seems minimal. While the lower adjustment in Australia wheat production was the primary bullish force yesterday, there is talk that the market overreacted to this news. The central Plains look to get more rain over the near term which is seen as a negative factor. UkAgroConsult forecast Russia’s 2020/21 wheat exports at 38 million tonnes, which compares with their 2019/20 estimate of 32.6 million tonnes. Australia’s GrainCorp expects to make “minimal” grain exports this year due to drought.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

February 19th, 2020|
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Feb 19 Afternoon Ag Commentary

by ADMIS Research Team

SOYBEANS

May soybeans were able to shake off early pressure and finish Wednesday’s trading session with a moderate gain. Bean oil made a sizable recovery from a 4 1/2 month low but closed in negative territory, while meal was able to grind out a modest gain on the day. A collapse in palm oil futures combined with a bearish tilt over the coronavirus demand issues helped to drive May soybeans all the way down to 894 ¾ early in the day. However, soybean oil failed to follow through after taking out the Feb 3rd low while meal continues to receive strong demand signals such as record crush pace out of the US and strong demand for expanding poultry production around the world. There are still no major weather issues in South America, although Argentine growing regions have a dry forecast through late next week. Traders continue to debate if China will aggressively buy US soybeans this year, and they await news from the USDA Outlook conference regarding planted acres estimates from the USDA for the coming year.

CORN

May corn opened slightly lower and traded sharply lower on the day early in Wednesday’s session, but remained inside of yesterday’s range and its recent consolidation zone through the close. Continued talk that China does not need feed grains at present, and continued decent weather down in South America helped to pressure. In addition, there was talk that the rally yesterday was overdone. Traders await news from the USDA Outlook conference regarding planted acres estimates from the USDA for the coming year. There is dry weather in the daily forecast for major Argentine growing areas through late next week, and that provided some measure of support for corn prices.

WHEAT

May wheat came under significant pressure into the midday and while it put together a sizable recovery late in the day, still finished up Wednesday’s inside-day trading session in negative territory. KC wheat and Minneapolis wheat also had inside-day ranges before closing with moderate losses. There has been talk that traders are second guessing the idea that China will be a strong buyer of US wheat. Tariffs on US wheat did come down from China but with huge stocks, China’s need for wheat seems minimal. While the lower adjustment in Australia wheat production was the primary bullish force yesterday, there is talk that the market overreacted to this news. The central Plains look to get more rain over the near term which is seen as a negative factor. UkAgroConsult forecast Russia’s 2020/21 wheat exports at 38 million tonnes, which compares with their 2019/20 estimate of 32.6 million tonnes. Australia’s GrainCorp expects to make “minimal” grain exports this year due to drought.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

February 19th, 2020|
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