Oct 5 Morning Ag Commentary

by Chris Lehner,

Cattle

USDA FEDERAL SLAUGHTER 10/04/2017 117,000, a week ago, 118,000 and a year ago, 112,000 

Boxed Beef 3:00PM October 04, 2017 

                                                          CHOICE      SELECT

                                                           600-900         600-900

Current Cutout Values:             197.41         189.55

Change from prior day               (0.46)           0.53

Choice/Select spread:                          7.86

Total Load Count                                   118

5 Day Simple Average:            196.68         188.96 

 Choice Cuts           47.84 loads       

 Select Cuts            23.16 loads           

 Trimmings             15.58 loads           

 Ground Beef          31.70 loads           

LOAD CUTOUT VALUE SUMMARY FOR PRIOR 5 DAYS

                                              CHOICE       SELECT

                                            600-900        600-900

 Date   Total          

10/03    114                        197.87         189.02

10/02    100                       197.22         188.28

09/29    120                      196.62         188.50

09/28    128                      196.41         189.11

09/27    150                      195.30         189.91

Boxed beef cutout values weak on Choice and firm on Select on light to moderate demand and offerings. Select and Choice chuck and round cuts mostly steady. Choice rib and loin cuts steady to weak while Select steady to firm. Beef trimmings mostly sharply lower on light demand and moderate offerings.

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Feedlots asking $110 this week. Packers bidding in the south $106. 

Packers have been using as many Midwestern cattle that are market available. Fed Cattle exchange prices were steady with last week’s cash market. Wednesday’s slaughter less than a week ago. 

Fed Cattle Exchange at 10:00AM sale had 1732 cattle listed. 784 head sold
Live Weight Offering:
1-9 Day Delivery: 1,109 head total, 705 head sold, weighted average price $ 108.01
1-17 Day Delivery: 501 head total, 79 head sold, weighted average price $ 108.00
17-30 Day Delivery: 122 head total, no sales. 

DECEMBER Live Cattle settled at 114.92, up .02 cents. Resistance is 117.72, the high on September 22, 2017.  Support starts at 113.10, down to the trendline at 111.70.  Volume was fair at 20,335 compared to the previous day at 22,098 contracts.

Feeder Cattle

The CME Feeder Index on 10/03/2017 is 155.65 down .11 cents from previous day. 

Demand for feeders is good if they are over 800 pounds. Lighter feeders are down $3.00 to $5.00 at auctions this week.  

NOVEMBER 2017 FEEDER CATTLE – Feeders settled at 153.30, down .80.  Volume was fair at 5368 contracts compared to the previous day at 6,322 contracts traded. Overhead resistance is the gap from 9,22/17 at 156.07 to 155.00 on 9/25/17. Traders for the third time since 9/25 pushed highs into the gap with Wednesday’s high at 155.40 but quickly sold to end the day lower on the 10 day moving average. Trendline support Wednesday is 151.30 with moving average supports at 153.50 to 152.00.

Lean Hogs

CME CASH HOG INDEX 10/02/2017 54.39 up .10 

CME CASH PORK CUTOUT INDEX 10/03/2017 at 72.68 down .01 

Estimated Hog Slaughter for October 4, 2017: 463,000. A week ago, 459,000, A year ago, 435,000. 

463,000 record daily slaughter 

Average carcass weight of 208.42 pounds. 

DECEMBER 2017 LEAN Hogs settled at 61.90, down .17 cents. Support is 60.50 to 60.75 down to 56.10. Overhead trendline resistance is 64.95.  Volume was light at 14,588 compared to the previous day at 33,393.

NATIONAL DAILY DIRECT HOG PRIOR DAY REPORT

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lm_hg201.txt

Cash prices are updated on the morning report

National Base Carcass Prices October 4, 2017

BASE PRICE:  $46.00 – $52.75

Weighted Ave: $50.97   1.30 higher 

National Live Hog Prices

LIVE PRICE $34.00 – $40.45

Weighted Ave: $39.79    1.62 higher 

NATIONAL DAILY PORK REPORT October 4, 2017

Loads PORK CUTS            343.51

Loads TRIMMINGS:          41.38

Total                                      384.89 

 

Date              Carcass   Loin       Butt        Pic          Rib       Ham     Belly

10/04/2017      72.88     74.67     81.11     60.65       113.56    64.10    89.14

Change:           0.42      -0.52      -1.33        1.91         -2.96      3.59     -2.06

5 Day Ave      72.78      74.91     81.91     59.92       115.72    61.98     90.76

 

 Past Load Movement:  

Date             Loads      Carcass Price  

10/03/2017    384.82     72.46  

10/02/2017    274.88     72.78  

09/29/2017    214.60     73.33  

09/28/2017    276.69     72.45  

 

Chris.lehner@admis.com            913.787.6804     312 242 7942 

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2017-10-05T15:56:27+00:00 October 5th, 2017|